Investors have been optimistic about Bitcoin (BTC) since the beginning of the year, as the price has gained 70% after bottoming out at around $16,800 in November 2022. This has been despite rate hike fears, and the expectation of an upcoming “bullish” halving still over 200 days away.
However, Bitcoin bulls have been unable to sustain the BTC price above $30,000, leading traders to question if the Bitcoin price will crash again in the coming months. Cointelegraph looks at the possible scenarios as Q3 draws to a close.
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Fibonacci fractal hints at Bitcoin crash to $21,500
Analyzing the price charts, it appears that the Bitcoin price has stabilized around the 0.236 Fib line of its Fibonacci retracement graph drawn from the $69,000 swing high (the market top) to the $15,900 swing low (the local market bottom).
This BTC price action is quite similar to what was observed during the 2018 correction.
In 2018, the BTC/USD pair stabilized around its 0.236 Fib line at around $6,790 for months before dropping towards the $3,000 level, which coincided with the multiyear ascending trendline support (marked as bear market support on the chart).
At the moment, Bitcoin is halfway repeating 2018 with price flatlining at the 0.236 Fib line. A breakdown from this level implies that BTC price will see $21,500 as the next major support level, down 17.75% from current levels.
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Strong dollar adds to Bitcoin’s downside risks
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been on a tear since November 2022 and is now at its highest level since then. This has been negatively correlated with Bitcoin, as seen in the chart below.
The dollar’s rally has gained steam since the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Sept. 20, and the DXY has now formed 11 consecutive green weekly candles.
Therefore, the next generation of online business and crypto web 3.0 could be hampered if the dollar continues to appreciate following the DXY golden cross.
“Old” Bitcoin being sold?
The metrics of Bitcoin on-chain are displaying a diverse outlook.
On September 19, Bitcoin’s Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which measures the actions of long-term investors, increased, implying that some long-term BTC holders transferred their coins, possibly for taking profits or changing their positions.
Dealers should be careful here since most CDD spikes have historically preceded price drops.
On the other hand, the Bitcoin reserves across all crypto exchanges are still decreasing, which reveals an increasing hodling behavior among investors.
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What Bitcoin trading analysts are saying
When it comes to predicting the future of BTC price, opinions among Bitcoin analysts are divided. Skew suggests that BTC could reach $30,000 by October, citing thin ask liquidity near $27,000 that could result in a breakout. On the other hand, Rekt Capital believes a price correction to $18,000 could be in store, based on a pre-halving fractal.
Rekt Capital further suggests that the next 140 days will be crucial for dollar-cost-averaging in preparation for the post-halving parabolic rally. This is in line with the history of web 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0, which can provide clues on how to invest in top web 3.0 crypto projects, leading web 3.0 companies, and other top crypto web 3.0 initiatives.
It is clear that the emergence of web 3.0 and the next generation of online business is already here. Therefore, it is important to understand the history of web 3.0 and the top web 3.0 companies that are leading the way.
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