Bitcoin and the wider crypto market have been declared dead many times during bear markets, however, some specialists claim that it would take an extraordinary set of events for it to actually die. According to 99Bitcoins, the largest crypto by market cap has been pronounced dead 474 times since 2010.
This statement is usually met with enthusiasm by crypto skeptics as a sign that BTC is not a reliable asset, however, some experts in the industry might not agree. Tomasz Wojewoda, head of business development at BNB Chain, is sure that it would take more than a bear market or crypto winter to end BTC and the crypto market, even though it has been a particularly tough downturn since the all-time highs of 2021.
A bear market is when the value of crypto has decreased by at least 20% and continues to decline, while a crypto winter is a prolonged period of low asset prices in the market. Wojewoda told Cointelegraph that, in his opinion, the only way BTC and the broader crypto market could die would be if something extraordinary happened, such as the underlying community losing interest and everyone exiting the space at once.
Regulation won’t kill crypto
Despite banking regulators’ attempts to bring down the crypto industry with a series of lawsuits and regulations, fears of its demise are unfounded. Chair Gary Gensler of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission has filed 780 enforcement actions in 2023, including 500 cases alone.
Crypto and BTC have managed to stay afloat, despite the slow and inadequate regulations. Wojewoda believes that, in the long run, regulations can actually be beneficial to the industry and will not be the cause of its downfall.
“Global regulations can affect the growth of crypto; however, with more countries embracing crypto worldwide, I don’t think this will be the reason for crypto to ‘die off,” he said.
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Some crypto will probably die, but the industry will survive
Wojewoda is convinced that the crypto market will make it through this crypto winter and beyond, and he believes that the concept will remain intact, although not all projects and currencies will survive in the long run.
Exploding Topics reports that there are more than 10,500 different cryptocurrencies in existence as of November 2023, but only 8,848 are still active in the space, with the rest dying or dropping out.
“Projects that didn’t have a real-life use case died off, but the ones that truly make an impact have not only survived but thrived,” Wojewoda said.
He further stated that there are many factors that can affect the trajectory of crypto, such as sentiment, regulation, and events like the Bitcoin ETF filing and upcoming Bitcoin halving.
In the long run, Wojewoda believes that it is not impossible for some crypto to be replaced by newer, better technology, although he does not think that Bitcoin will be among the casualties due to its network effect and user base.
“Bitcoin will likely remain as the most popular crypto in terms of market share. Where I think we will likely see more movement in the ranks is among cryptocurrencies that offer real-world applications,” Wojewoda said.
These applications are why Wojewoda thinks that the market will endure in the long term, with some projects and currencies surviving while others do not, but the crypto market and Bitcoin will remain.
The market will bounce back, with BTC still standing
Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy for digital asset investment firm Matrixport, is also unconvinced that a bear market or crypto winter would be the end of the crypto market and BTC.
When talking to Cointelegraph, Thielen said that while many people exit the space during bear markets, it’s a regular part of the process, not a sign of crypto’s demise.
“Many companies have downsized near the top of the last bull market,” he said.
Right-sizing is the process of restructuring to make profits more efficiently and meet updated business objectives. Right-sizing usually involves reducing workforces, shifting around upper management and other cost-cutting measures.
“As long as there is value being sent around electronically, crypto has a value proposition that is hard to match with the traditional banking rails,” Thielen added.
So far, there have been four bull markets — 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2021 — and record numbers of people have entered the space each time, only to vanish when the bears strike. A bull market is characterized by rising prices and investor optimism.
According to Thielen, each bull market is being built upon a new narrative, which will continue to be the case. He says there will likely be another narrative for a fifth bull market very soon.
“With regulators approving Bitcoin futures in 2017 and potentially a Bitcoin ETF in 2024, the regulatory level playing field is secured,” Thielen said.
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