On October 3, United States 10-year Treasury yields surged beyond 4.8%, their highest level since 2007. Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, mentioned in a post on X (formerly Twitter) that the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields had narrowed from 109 basis points a few months ago to 35 basis points. He cautioned that this “should put everyone on recession warning.”
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, cautioned in a recent X thread that the government may need to print money to save the bond market if a faster bear steepener — a condition where long-term interest rates rise more quickly than short-term rates — causes firms to collapse. Some investors assume this could trigger a cryptocurrency bull market.
It appears that institutional investors have started to warm up to cryptocurrencies. CoinShares’ latest Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report shows inflows of $21 million into digital asset investment products for the first time in six weeks.
In this uncertain macro environment, let’s analyze the charts to determine the next potential move.
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Bitcoin price analysis
On Oct. 2, the Bitcoin (BTC) rate exceeded $28,143, but the long wick on the candlestick displays that bears are selling at higher levels with aggression. On Oct. 3, the bears attempted to build up their edge, yet the bulls kept their support at $27,160.
The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average ($26,903) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive area demonstrate that bulls are in control. Buyers will try to overcome the overhead resistance at $28,143 again.
If the price closes above this level, it will form a short-term double bottom pattern, which can bring the target objective of $31,486. If the price turns down from the overhead resistance and declines below the 20-day EMA, the BTC/USDT pair may drop to $26,000 and stay in the range between $24,800 and $28,143 for some time.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) has been met with strong resistance at the $1,746 level, indicating that the bears are firmly defending this area.
The 20-day EMA ($1,640) is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint, suggesting that there is a balance between supply and demand. If the price rebounds from current levels, the bulls will again attempt to break through the $1,746 barrier. If successful, the ETH/USDT pair will form a double bottom pattern, with a target objective of $1,961.
Alternatively, if the price continues to drop and falls below the moving averages, it could indicate that the pair may remain inside the $1,531 to $1,746 range for some time.
BNB price analysis
On Oct. 2, BNB (BNB) attempted to break out above the $220 resistance, but the bulls failed to sustain the momentum as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.
The inability of the bulls to keep the price above the 20-day EMA ($214) is a bearish sign. This suggests that traders are exiting the market. The BNB/USDT pair could then drop to the uptrend line.
If the price rebounds from this level, the bulls will once again try to push the pair above $220. A successful close above this resistance could indicate the beginning of a rally towards $235 and then to $250. On the other hand, if the price goes below the uptrend line, the pair may decrease to the strong support at $203.
XRP price analysis
On Sep. 29, buyers drove XRP (XRP) beyond the symmetrical triangle pattern, but the bears tried to push the price back into the triangle several times without success.
The bulls will now attempt to break through the resistance at $0.56. If they manage to do so, it will be the beginning of a new uptrend, pushing the XRP/USDT pair towards the $0.66 mark.
Conversely, if the price falls from $0.56 and drops below the uptrend line, it could mean that the bulls are taking profits. This could keep the pair in a range between $0.56 and $0.41 for a few more days.
Solana price analysis
The SOL/USDT pair has been trading inside a wide range between $14 and $27.12, forming a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. Despite the fact that such patterns developed in a range are usually less reliable, they should not be overlooked. If the price rises and breaks above the neckline, it may attempt to reach $27.12 and further to the target of $32.81.
The key support to keep an eye on is the 20-day EMA ($20.95). A move below this level would indicate that the bulls have given up, which could lead to a potential decline to $17.33.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) dropped from $0.27 on Oct. 2 and touched the 20-day EMA ($0.25) on Oct. 4. This is an important level to watch out for in the near term.
If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will signal a shift in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips. The bulls will then attempt to push the price above $0.27 and initiate an uptrend to $0.29 and later to $0.32.
If bears want to prevent the rally, they will have to drag the price below the 20-day EMA. The ADA/USDT pair may then once again slip to the vital support at $0.24. The bulls are likely to defend this level with enthusiasm.
Dogecoin price analysis
On Oct. 2, the bulls tried to push Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 50-day SMA ($0.06), but were unsuccessful. This suggests that bears are selling during each minor price increase.
The DOGE/USDT pair has reached the significant support at $0.06, but the repeated testing of this support level could weaken it. If the $0.06 level is broken, the pair may fall to the next major support at $0.055.
The buyers have a minor advantage because the RSI has formed a bullish divergence. This indicates that the bears may be losing their strength. As the indicators are not providing clarity about the next move, the best way to make a directional bet is to wait until the price closes above the 50-day SMA or drops below $0.06.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) dropped beneath the 20-day EMA ($2.09) on Sep. 30 and the bears prevented attempts of the bulls to recover the level on Oct. 1.
The bears are trying to strengthen their position by pushing the price to the 50-day SMA ($1.86). This level could result in a bounce that is likely to encounter selling at the 20-day EMA.
If the price reverses from this resistance, it will demonstrate that the sentiment has become bearish and traders are selling on rallies. That will raise the probability of a decline under the 50-day SMA.
Conversely, if the price turns up and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will show that the markets have declined the lower levels. The TON/USDT pair could then ascend to $2.32 where the bears will once again attempt to stop the up-move.
Polkadot price analysis
Polkadot (DOT) had a sharp decline from the 50-day SMA ($4.24) on Oct. 2 and dipped below the 20-day EMA ($4.10) on Oct. 3.
The bears tested the significant support at $3.91 on Oct. 4, but the long tail on the candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The RSI has generated a bullish divergence, indicating that the sellers could be losing their strength.
If the bulls can push the price above the 20-day EMA, it could indicate that the DOT/USDT pair may stay within the $4.33 to $3.91 range for a bit longer. The bears will need to drive the price below $3.91 to start the next leg of the downtrend to $3.50.
Polygon price analysis
The bulls and the bears have been engaged in a heated battle near the moving averages, but on Oct. 4, Polygon (MATIC) bounced, suggesting that buyers are attempting to take control.
The bulls are attempting to capitalize on the strength and drive the price above the $0.60 resistance. If they are successful, it will be a sign of a sustained recovery. The MATIC/USDT pair could then rise to $0.70.
Conversely, if the price drops and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears are strong at higher levels. The pair may then retest the critical support at $0.49, which is likely to draw strong buying from the bulls.
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