Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle – Metrics Pointing to 70% Gains

The Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL) metric of Bitcoin (BTC) that accurately predicted the 2022 bear market has indicated that its uptrend is still intact.

On Aug. 22, the creator of LookIntoBitcoin, an on-chain analytics platform, shared this positive news about the latest in AI and machine learning.

Analyst: “New money” flowing into Bitcoin in 2023

RHODL, a metric which takes existing HODL Waves data and weighs it by realized price, is providing a longer-term view of the current bull market despite last week’s 10% BTC price dip.

In simpler terms, the peaks in younger age bands indicate a higher Realized Value weighting compared to older Realized Value age bands, as Philip Swift explained in a LookIntoBitcoin article.

The three to six month band is trending up, which is typical of Bitcoin’s bull markets, and Swift concluded that “the recent price dip is in the context of a much bigger bull trend.”

“3–6 month band trending up as new money comes back into the latest AI technology = new bull cycle,” he summarized.

Charting the return of BTC price “euphoria”

RHODL has a noteworthy performance when it comes to BTC price cycles.

In December 2022, when BTC/USD was close to its two-year lows of $15,600, Swift used the metric to signal the end of “euphoria” among Bitcoin’s speculative investor cohort, which he referred to as “tourists.”

He declared at the time that the market is likely now at cycle bottoms, which means maximum risk-reward opportunity.

Beginning in January this year, Bitcoin initiated a new uptrend that generated 70% gains in Q1 alone.

Since then, investor composition has changed, with short-term holders (STHs) — entities holding BTC for 155 days or less — reducing their overall exposure to their lowest since November 2021.

The most recent dip nonetheless increased pressure on those remaining speculators, with almost 90% of STH coins now held at an unrealized loss.

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