Crypto Fall Analysis 9/25: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, TON, SOL.
Price analysis 9/25: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, TON, SOL

The crypto fall on Sep. 24 shows that the bears are still in control. Sellers are trying to push the price below $26,000, yet the bulls are likely to defend the level with vigor. Buyers are aiming for a positive monthly close for Bitcoin in September for the first time since 2016.

If they manage to accomplish this, it will be a great sentiment booster as October usually favors the buyers. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin has seen a negative monthly close in October only on two occasions, in 2014 and 2018. However, Bitcoin bulls will find it hard to maintain the momentum if macroeconomic headwinds persist.

Another risk to the crypto recovery could come from the strength in the greenback, which has risen for ten consecutive weeks, its longest winning streak since 2014. The United States dollar index (DXY) has also formed a golden cross, indicating further potential upside in the near term.

Will the U.S. dollar extend its gains or witness a short-term correction? Can Bitcoin bulls hold off the bear pressure in the last week of September? Let’s analyze the charts to find out if the crypto current will be positive, negative or down today.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index dropped sharply from the downtrend line and broke below the moving averages on Sep. 15, initiating a crypto negative move that reached the crucial support at 4,325.

The 20-day exponential moving average (4,422) has started to decline and the relative strength index (RSI) is near the oversold territory, indicating that the crypto down today has the advantage. If the price remains below 4,325, the index will complete a bearish head and shoulders (H&S) pattern. This crypto negative setup has a target objective of 4,043.

If bulls want to stop the fall, they will have to quickly drive the price above the 20-day EMA. That could attract further buying and the bulls will then attempt to kick the price above the downtrend line. If they manage to do that, the index has a good chance of retesting the local high at 4,607.

U.S. dollar index price analysis

The U.S. dollar index bounced off the 20-day EMA (104.85) on Sep. 20, indicating that the sentiment remains crypto positive and traders are buying on dips.

The up-move is likely to hit a wall at 106. This is the key crypto current level to keep an eye on in the near term. If the price turns down from this resistance but bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will enhance the prospects of a rally above 106. The next resistance on the upside is at 108.

Sellers will have to yank the price back below the 20-day EMA if they want to weaken the crypto negative momentum. The index could then drop to 104.40 and later to the 50-day simple moving average (103.35).

Bitcoin price analysis

The crypto fall from the inside-day candlestick pattern on Sep. 22 and 23 was confirmed on Sep. 24. This suggests that the bears have asserted their supremacy.

The crypto negative sentiment will try to strengthen further by pulling the price to the solid support at $24,800. This remains the key level to watch out for in the near term as the bulls are expected to defend it with all their might. If the $24,800 support gives way, the BTC/USDT pair could start a downward move to $20,000.

Time is running out for the crypto good news. If they want to start a meaningful recovery, they will have to push and sustain the price above the moving averages. That will open the doors for a retest of the overhead resistance at $28,143.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) has been gradually declining toward the key level at $1,531, which suggests a lack of buying support from the bulls.

The crypto drop is indicated by the downsloping moving averages, however the RSI is displaying signs of forming a bullish divergence. This implies that the selling pressure could be decreasing. This increases the chances of a bounce off $1,531.

If the bulls manage to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,616), it will signal a range-bound action between $1,531 and $1,746 for a few days. This outlook will be invalidated if the bears manage to sink and sustain the ETH/USDT pair below $1,531. The pair could then plunge to $1,368.

BNB price analysis

The crypto of the week, BNB (BNB), has been oscillating between $220 and $203 for the past few days. Traders usually purchase near the support and sell close to the resistance in such a range.

Both moving averages are declining, indicating a bearish edge but the RSI is trying to form a bullish divergence. This implies that the bearish momentum may be weakening. Buyers are likely to strongly defend the $203 level.

If the price increases from the current level or rebounds from $203, it will suggest that the range-bound action might persist for a while. Sellers will need to pull the price below the important support at $203 to gain control. The BNB/USDT pair could then plunge to $183.

XRP price analysis

After staying above the 20-day EMA ($0.50) for a few days, XRP (XRP) crypto dropped below the level on Sep. 24. This suggests that the bears have gained the upper hand.

XRP price could crypto fall to the uptrend line, which is expected to act as a strong support. If the price rebounds off the uptrend line, the bulls will again try to shove the price above the 20-day EMA. If they do that, it will signal aggressive buying at lower levels. The pair may then climb to the 50-day SMA ($0.53).

Contrarily, if the uptrend line fails to hold, XRP price could first crypto drop to $0.46 and thereafter to the formidable support at $0.41. This level is likely to attract strong buying by the bulls.

Cardano price analysis

The crypto drop of Cardano (ADA) to the critical support at $0.24 on Sep. 25 indicates that the bears have maintained their pressure.

The bulls have a minor advantage, as the RSI is forming a bullish divergence. To reduce the risk of a breakdown below $0.24, they have to quickly push the ADA/USDT pair above the downtrend line. If successful, the bearish descending triangle will be rendered invalid, potentially driving the price up to $0.29.

On the other hand, if bears drag the crypto down below $0.24, it will complete the bearish setup. This could lead to a downward move towards $0.22 and then to the pattern target of $0.19.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently trading inside a narrow range between $0.06 and the 20-day EMA ($0.06). This crypto of the week is usually followed by an increase in volatility, yet it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout.

If DOGE/USDT pair rises from the current level, the bulls will again attempt to breach the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA. If successful, the crypto may go up to $0.07 and then climb to $0.08. The bears are likely to sell near this level.

On the other hand, if the range resolves to the downside with a break below $0.06, it will suggest that the bears are in control. The crypto down today could then plunge to the next major support at $0.055.

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) has experienced a sharp fall since it encountered resistance at $2.59 on Sep. 20, indicating that the crypto bulls are taking profits.

The first support level is the 20-day EMA ($2.11). If the price bounces off this level with strength, it will show that sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. The bulls will then attempt to push the price to $2.59 again.

On the other hand, if the price drops below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the crypto bulls are losing their grip. The TON/USDT pair could first dip to the psychological level of $2 and later to the 50-day SMA ($1.72). A deeper correction is likely to delay the next leg of the up-move.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) has been trading around the 20-day EMA ($19.53) for the past few days, indicating a struggle between the bulls and the bears.

The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint point to a balance between supply and demand. To indicate the start of a recovery to $22.30, the bulls will have to push the crypto up above the 50-day SMA ($20.80).

On the other hand, if the price drops from the current level, it will signal that the bears have taken control. The SOL/USDT pair could then test the key support at $17.33. If it breaks, the crypto may plunge to $14.

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