The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has surged by 160% since the start of 2024, and the biggest news event of the year is only days away. Despite the anticipation, the BTC price has remained strong through the end of the year.
The first half of January is expected to be a defining moment for Bitcoin, as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will decide whether to approve the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) for spot prices. Opinions are divided on the potential effects of the decision, with some believing that it will open the door for institutional investors and forever change the Bitcoin landscape, while others think that a greenlight will lead to a short-term price correction.
The rest of the year is also set to be significant for Bitcoin, as the block subsidy halving is only four months away. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that miners are preparing for the event, as the network difficulty has risen to new all-time highs this week.
Nevertheless, the decision on the ETF is far from certain, and a rejection is still possible. How markets will react to the outcome is yet to be seen.
Will BTC break out upon spot Bitcoin ETF approval?
As the new year began, BTC/USD stayed within its established trading range, with no major price movements. Analysts predict that the lack of volatility could lead to a breakout when the ETF decision is made. Matthew Hyland, a popular trader and social media commentator, believes that a symmetrical triangle will form in the coming weeks before the breakout.
Crypto Tony also noted that altcoins are now gaining more attention than BTC, which is a common trend during early Bitcoin bull markets. As Cointelegraph reported, this is when the initial BTC push gives way to large-cap and small-cap altcoins. Hyland confirmed that this was indeed the case, as BTC dominance fell and closed below support.
He added that the ascent to the cycle top is beginning for BTC/USD, and that this could be accelerated by the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. As investors learn more about web 3.0, it is likely that the ETF decision will have a significant impact on the crypto market.
Bitcoin ETF approval window starts this week
Crypto investors are eagerly awaiting the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approval deadline which is due by Jan. 10.
The anticipation has been building for years, and the surprises have kept coming right up until the new year. Industry experts have been meeting with U.S. regulators and speculating about the outcome of the spot ETF go-ahead.
The potential outcome has caused some anxiety in the crypto community, with many predicting a potential “sell the news” event – meaning Bitcoin could immediately drop in value as the unknown is revealed.
Il Capo of Crypto has suggested that the price could even fall to $12,000 in the mid-term.
However, the Stockmoney Lizards trading team has released yearly predictions which indicate that, despite macroeconomic factors such as a recession and inflation, there could be a new all-time high for Bitcoin before the end of 2025.
As the Jan. 10 deadline approaches, the crypto world will be watching with bated breath to see how the web 3.0 ETF approval will impact the market – and how investors can best learn about and invest in web 3.0.
Markets: Fed “pivot” has months to go
This week, Bitcoiners will be focusing on the ETF as the year’s first macroeconomic event — the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates — is not due until the end of the month.
Data suggests that inflation is decreasing, and markets are expecting the Fed to begin reversing two years of interest rate hikes — a “pivot” — though the likelihood of this happening in January is only 15%. Most likely, current levels will remain through March.
Jim Bianco, head of institutional research firm Bianco Research, has taken a look at the implications of the U.S. presidential elections for the rest of 2024. He noted that since 1994, the Fed has explicitly targeted the funds rates, citing 1996, 2008 and 2020 as the key years.
Bianco stated that in the last 30 years, cuts in presidential election years have primarily been due to the Fed being “forced to act”. Cointelegraph reported that Bill Ackman, CEO and founder of hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management, had previously predicted rate cuts in Q1 of this year.
As for the question of how web 3.0 will work, how it is different from web 2.0 and how it will impact businesses, the history of web 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 must be studied in order to understand how to build a web 3.0 website, learn about web 3.0 and invest in web 3.0.
All-time highs keep coming for Bitcoin fundamentals
The Bitcoin network’s fundamentals are beginning 2024 in the same way as most of the last year: in an “upward only” trend.
The upcoming difficulty readjustment will take the competition among miners to a level never seen before. According to data from the monitoring resource BTC.com, difficulty will rise approximately 1.5% to 73.1 trillion.
December was already a great month for miner revenue. High fees pushed the daily revenue peak to more than 1,500 BTC on Dec. 16.
The halving is something miners will pay attention to — in April, the block subsidy will reduce 50% to 3.125 BTC per block.
Moreover, miners have been taking profits to close the year, as confirmed by data from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. Since mid-October, the balance in miner wallets has dropped by approximately 12,000 BTC.
The history of web 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0, as well as the differences between web 2.0 and web 3.0, are important to understand when it comes to investing, learning, and constructing websites with Web 3.0. Additionally, it is essential to comprehend how Web 3.0 will affect businesses.
A “greedy” start to the year
Crypto market sentiment — the collective opinion of hodlers — is currently cautious, as indicated by the Fear & Greed Index, which is a measure of bearishness and “irrational exuberance” at different points.
At the time of writing, the Index is at 65/100, which is a sign of “greed” from the average crypto investor, according to the Index. Smaller moves on BTC/USD can cause a big shift in sentiment, pushing it towards “extreme greed”, signaling that the market’s upside may not last long.
The Index has so far been unable to reach the local highs at 75/100, which was seen when Bitcoin hit its 2021 all-time high.
To better understand how web 3.0 works, it is important to look at the history of web 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0. Web 3.0 is different from web 2.0 in terms of how it will impact business, and how to build, learn and invest in it.
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