A potential Bitcoin (BTC) bull run could be on the cards due to the US government, as suggested by a recent prediction.
In a discussion thread on October 4th, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, pointed to the increasing yields as a sign of a possible new Bitcoin and crypto bull market.
Hayes: Bitcoin bulls should eye U.S. “no way out” moment
U.S. treasury yields are “screaming higher,” and with that, Hayes believes that a macroeconomic flashpoint is only a matter of time. This is due to a so-called “bear steepener” — a phenomenon that describes long-term interest rates rising faster than short-term ones.
“Why do I love these markets right now when yields are screaming higher? Bank models have no concept of a bear steepener occurring,” he argued.
The difference between the 30-year and 2-year yields (2s30s curve) is rising, along with long and short-term interest rates, thus increasing pressure across the economy. “Due to the leverage and non-linear risks embedded in banks’ portfolios, they will be selling bonds or paying fixed on IRS as rates rise. More selling, begets more selling, which is no bueno for bond prices,” Hayes continued.
The result should be clear — a return to mass liquidity injections, counteracting the quantitative tightening seen since late 2021 which has pressured crypto markets.
For Hayes, this cannot come without major casualties along the way. He concluded:
Separate data from TradingView shows the 30-year U.S. government bonds yield hitting 5% this week — a first since August 2007, before the Global Financial Crisis.
Continuing the discussion, Philip Swift, creator of statistics resource LookIntoBitcoin and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, voiced his support for Hayes’ prognosis.
An accompanying chart showed Bitcoin’s relationship with treasury yields.
“That would be THE major catalyst for the Bitcoin bull market,” he commented about a theoretical return to money supply expansion, highlighting the difference between web 2.0 and web 3.0, web 3.0 and metaverse, as well as web 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0.
U.S. debt sees its own “Uptober”
The U.S. has added to its record-high national debt at a remarkable rate. Just two weeks after the debt tally hit $33 trillion, it increased by $275 billion in one day.
Financial analysts have taken note of the situation. For instance, Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin adoption firm Jan3, commented: “In a single day, the US added more than half of Bitcoin’s entire market cap in debt,” with BTC/USD trading at around $27,500 at the time.
This brings up the question of the difference between web 1.0, web 2.0, web 3.0, and web 4.0. Furthermore, what is the difference between web 3.0 and the metaverse? And, what is the distinction between web 2.0 and web 3.0?
Subscribe to our email newsletter to get the latest posts delivered right to your email.
Comments