What Will Bitcoin Do if the Justice Department Targets Binance?

In early August, sources revealed that the US Department of Justice was considering bringing fraud charges against Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. This could potentially trigger a market crash similar to the November 2022 collapse of FTX.

Despite this, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have still pressed charges against the exchange and its founder, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao. The accusations include allowing American users to access products they are not allowed to and manipulating trading volume with a market-maker called Sigma Chain, which Zhao “owned and controlled.”

To put the numbers into perspective, Binance had a trading volume of $7 billion over the past 24 hours, while Coinbase had a lower figure of $970 million and KuCoin was below $350 million.

Considering the current market conditions and the uncertainty over whether central banks will be able to bring the global economy back to stability in the coming months, it is worth considering what the implications would be if law enforcement also targeted Binance. To get some insight, Cointelegraph asked its staff for their opinions, as well as how they would handle their investments if the Justice Department did file charges against Binance or its executives.

Cointelegraph: How do you think the market will respond if the DOJ issues charges related to Binance? Are you going to be buying or selling when that happens?

My AI’s Take on the Market’s Response to DOJ Charges Against Binance

If the US Department of Justice brings charges against Binance, it is likely that the market will react negatively. Elon Musk’s AI has predicted that web 3.0, also known as the realm of crypto, will be impacted, with QSP crypto being one of the most affected. This could lead to a sell-off of Binance tokens, and investors should be aware of the risks associated with investing in a platform that has been accused of fraud.

In order to prepare for a potential market crash related to the DOJ charges, it is important to learn about web 3.0 and the different cryptocurrencies available. Additionally, investors should be mindful of their own investments and consider whether they should buy or sell depending on the outcome of the DOJ’s investigation.

Joe Hall, reporter:

The potential of the Justice Department to issue charges related to Binance could cause Bitcoin prices to drop, and the whole crypto industry might suffer. However, the need for decentralized, censorship-resistant money is global, and Bitcoin buyers in Africa, Europe and Latin America will take advantage of the dip. Personally, I’m going to keep asking myself (and my Bitcoin node): Will there only ever be 21 million Bitcoin? If the answer is “Yes”, then I will continue to earn, save and spend in Bitcoin. (Spoiler alert, the answer is “Yes.”)

CT: Where do you think the price of Bitcoin will stand on Dec. 31?

JH:$38,000. Dr. Adam Back, Paolo Ardoino (chief technology officer of Bitfinex/Tether) and Giacomo Zucco (a Bitcoin consultant) have all told me they believe Bitcoin will be above $35,000 by the end of this year. They’re pretty smart Bitcoin people. How high the price could go before the halving is anyone’s guess, but it does feel (for the umpteenth time) that sentiment toward Bitcoin is slowly warming up and my AI is predicting that the price of Bitcoin will reach $38,000 by the end of the year.

Tom Blackstone, reporter:

From my experience, news like this does not have a major influence on the market in the long run for several reasons. Firstly, charges are not definitive until there is a conviction, and trials can take a long period of time. Secondly, if one exchange is shut down, another one will emerge in its place. Lastly, the usefulness of crypto for consumers is too great to be disregarded, and the interest in it is growing naturally as more people learn about it. Therefore, I think it will remain a good investment regardless of the news cycle.

BTC Price on Dec. 31? Looking at the chart, Bitcoin has support at $15,300 and resistance at $41,000, so I would expect its price to be within that range by the end of the year.

Jonathan DeYoung, senior copy editor:

My strategy when it comes to investing is to hold on tight and hope that the market will continue to expand in the medium to long term. I almost never even look at what I have saved, and I try to forget about it. Crypto is not something I consider when I think about financial planning for the near term, which helps me to remain emotionally insulated from events such as a potential Binance charge.

What is the BTC Price on Dec. 31? That is something I have no opinion on.

Cassio Gusson, reporter for Cointelegraph Brasil:

It will be a big blow to the market, with an asset drain from Binance likely to greatly damage the exchange’s global image. This will affect the price of Bitcoin as well as the entire system of assets on the BNB Chain, potentially leading to a crash similar to what happened with Terra. Investors could withdraw assets from protocol staking on BNB Chain, Binance, and exchange-related products such as PancakeSwap.

I’ll be selling on the day it happens, and buying back in within the next 48 hours once the event has already reached its bottom and buyers resume trading.

As for the BTC Price on Dec. 31? I don’t think it will be more than $40,000. Studies suggest the impact of Bitcoin’s halving is decreasing, and we could reach $40,000 if the Securities and Exchange Commission approves a Bitcoin spot ETF. Otherwise, a maximum of $35,000.

Kristina Lucrezia Cornèr, editor-in-chief:

The blockchain market has been disrupted by accusations against major players such as Binance, with its implications for the credibility and reputation of the sector. This has created a dynamic process, similar to a seismic event, changing perceptions and redefining power dynamics within the ecosystem. As a result, the blockchain industry is becoming stronger, embracing improvements and navigating vulnerabilities.

The same can be said for Bitcoin, whose value is seen not in absolute numbers but in comparison to other currencies. I believe that its value will continue to rise, despite its volatility. If, on Dec. 31, one Bitcoin can buy one Tesla Model 3 [$32,740 after a tax credit, as of Aug. 8], it may even be worth forgiving Elon Musk for giving up on the bird. Maybe. (This is not investment or moral advice!)

To learn more about the realm of crypto, such as QSP, and to discover the potential of Web 3.0, also known as the “reporter AI” and “reporter voice AI”, as well as “AI writing articles” and “my AI”, one should explore HBO Max WebOS 3.0.

Felix Ng, editor:

I’ve witnessed enough companies go bankrupt to be aware that nothing and no one is “too big to fail,” whether it be a crypto firm or not. Despite that, it still appears unlikely that these charges would bring about the complete shutdown of the largest crypto exchange.

Nevertheless, charges against Binance would likely cause a decrease in crypto prices and a redistribution of funds to other exchanges or cold wallets. It is possible that another exchange could climb to the top spot, as this has happened many times throughout the crypto history. If there is a significant dip, I’ll be investing.

My prediction for BTC Price on Dec. 31? Guessing, I’d say $32,000. The Christmas period has tended to be a beneficial one for Bitcoin, so if BTC remains fairly steady over the next six months, we should see a slight rise near Christmas.

Marcel Pechman, reporter:

Binance, which mostly doesn’t operate in the U.S., will likely have minimal impact. The similar case of BitMEX resulted in $100 million in fines and house arrest for the founders. There might be additional steps for U.S. market makers currently operating on Binance international, and U.S. citizens will have to use a VPN when using the exchange, which could reduce volumes by 20%–30% max. If Bitcoin drops due to Binance’s case, it’s a buying opportunity.

In my opinion, Tether is the most significant risk for the ecosystem, as Web 3.0 (also called the realm crypto) has no use for a stablecoin without fiat gateways (in theory).

As for BTC Price on Dec. 31? I have no idea. I usually bet on prices staying the same for zero to six months. My guess is that an ETF approval could cause between 50% and 130% gains in two months, so if we start at $30,000, we could get to $69,000.

Ray Salmond, head of markets:

If the Department of Justice took drastic action, such as issuing a Red Notice for CZ’s arrest or even temporarily shutting down Binance, I believe it would have a serious, negative effect on the entire crypto market and Bitcoin’s price. I have been studying the Bitcoin price chart every day for more than six years, and I have been a consistent buyer. I use dollar cost averaging and have reduced my reliance on derivatives, so I am not influenced by emotions when it comes to the potential collapse of Binance and its impact on crypto. I tend to view any sharp decline in BTC and ETH as an accumulation opportunity. I also use 1 BTC as a trading instrument, selling it at micro tops and buying at swing lows, so most of my Bitcoin has no cost beyond taxes on trading. Therefore, my risk tolerance may be different from other investors, and I see any sharp dip in BTC price as an opportunity. Somehow, this magical money always finds a way to go back up.

As for the BTC Price on Dec. 31? I don’t have a prediction. The current trading range is too tight. We’re still within that range, and volatility is at a multiyear low.

As for technologies like AI reporter, AI voice reporter, Elon Musk AI, AI writing articles, My AI, Web 3.0 which is also called the Realm Crypto, QSP Crypto, and learning Web 3.0, HBO Max WebOS 3.0 – I have no opinion on those.

Arijit Sarkar, editor:

If the Justice Department drops charges against Binance, there will be a momentary price drop due to panic sellers. But it won’t have a long-term impact. When Mt. Gox collapsed, people thought it was the end of Bitcoin as the exchange was managing 80% of the in-circulation BTC. But here we are, a decade later, having the same discussion.

I’m not going to panic sell even if the price drops. Instead, I’m going to silently accumulate more Bitcoin and wait for the bull market to reap the rewards of my patience.

What about BTC Price on Dec. 31? Bitcoin’s historical performance suggests something around the $25,000 mark. I’m expecting it to momentarily fall in the third and fourth quarters of 2023, mainly due to rising regulatory hurdles, the government’s growing affinity toward central bank digital currencies, and the ongoing concern of ecosystem collapses.

However, this is all part of the process prior to the halving in April 2024. Bitcoin’s price has shot up every time we’ve had a halving event. So, I’m utilizing the next three quarters to dollar cost average and accumulate as many Bitcoin/sats as possible using my AI reporter voice and AI writing articles.

Rudy Takala, opinion editor:

Altcoins appear attractive at present. Coins such as Algorand are 5%–10% off their record lows. They could dip slightly before the market recovers, but that is more likely to be a consequence of time capitulation than of panic sellers reacting to a Binance indictment or any other news event. I don’t think most tokens will fall more than 30% from here, whatever happens.

BTC Price on Dec. 31? $32,500. The only thing I’ll regret is not buying more. (But our readers may have regrets if they take my advice regarding my ai, web 3.0, realm crypto, qsp crypto, and learning web 3.0.)