Bitcoin (BTC) to Reach New All-Time Highs in 2024, But Halving Will Impact Bulls First
According to new analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to break new all-time highs in 2024, but not before the halving event punishes bullish investors.
DecenTrader, a trading suite, released its latest market update on February 2nd, predicting the classic price behavior of BTC during a halving year.
DecenTrader: Bitcoin Will Challenge Investors Before Reaching All-Time High in Q4
According to DecenTrader, Bitcoin is expected to experience a period of sideways price movement for about a month before the market reacts to the upcoming block subsidy halving.
CEO and co-founder Filbfilb summarizes the BTC price roadmap for this year, stating that there will be a surge in buying activity approximately two months before the halving date, which is currently estimated to be April 18.
This will be followed by another “sell the news” event, similar to what happened during the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January.
“There are approximately 75 days left until the Bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur around April 18, 2024. This is significant because we can assume that there will be a rise in buying interest before the halving, likely no later than six weeks before – around the second week of March,” Filbfilb explains.
This anticipation among speculators could potentially drive BTC/USD to its current two-year high of $49,000 before a sell-off similar to what happened after the launch of ETFs occurs.
However, after this initial dip, the path will be clear for price discovery to occur before the end of 2024 – a trend that was seen during Bitcoin’s last halving year in 2020.
“It’s important to keep in mind that Bitcoin tends to anticipate the sell-the-news event during a halving,” Filbfilb reminds readers.
Is the Bitcoin halving really going to be different this time?
The first quarter of the year is proving to be a challenging time for traders due to the unpredictable fluctuations in BTC price.
Aside from Bitcoin-specific factors, there are also macroeconomic and geopolitical obstacles that could potentially cause turbulence in the wider risk-asset market.
These include the potential weakness of the US banking system, which former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts will come to a head in March.
Some experts believe that we won’t see a new all-time high for BTC/USD until the end of 2025.
According to Filbfilb, there’s not much reason to be overly optimistic about the coming weeks.
“Many people are convincing themselves that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs before the halving because ‘it’s different this time,'” he explained.
As of the Feb. 4 weekly close, BTC/USD was trading just below $43,000, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
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