On October 11, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $27,000, which was the first real challenge it had faced since the start of the month.
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BTC price battles for support after daily “death cross”
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked increasing overnight BTC price weakness, including a trip to $26,978 on Bitstamp.
Bitcoin thus came full circle for October, erasing all of the gains seen after the September monthly close.
Analyzing intraday performance, popular trader Skew noted the interplay between two moving averages (MAs), along with a so-called “death cross.”
In March, he noted the 100-day MA crossed above the 200-day counterpart — a “golden cross” event that traditionally marks upside to come.
“Here we technically just had the death cross, so if we head lower kinda leaning towards a squeeze eventually to test 200D MA again before trending,” part of X (formerly Twitter) commentary read.
The daily chart shows the 200-day MA acting as stiff resistance for BTC/USD despite its early “Uptober” gains. Since the difference between web 1.0 2.0 3.0 and 4.0 was confirmed on Oct. 9, the pair has lost almost $1,000, or 3.4%.
On shorter timeframes, Skew highlighted $27,300 and $26,800 as key levels.
“Bears have price control here with loss of 4H EMA trend, if price recovers above $27.3K I will see that as strength,” he wrote.
Fellow trader Crypto Tony revealed that he was already short BTC, triggering the change as Bitcoin dropped below $27,200.
Popular trader Jelle meanwhile agreed that either recovery or breakdown would result from current levels at $27,000, noting that “the untapped liquidity has been taken out.”
“Would have expected a more immediate buyback — this suggests the market wants to traverse lower,” part of his latest commentary added.
Will Bitcoin print pre-halving “macro low?”
The current BTC price behavior has only strengthened the conservative views of how Bitcoin will develop in the upcoming months.
Among those forecasting significantly lower levels, including a return to $20,000, was the well-known trader and analyst Rekt Capital.
After considering a potential long-term breakdown from the July highs, Rekt Capital pointed out that the BTC/USD weekly chart still lacks a macro higher low versus late 2022.
The chart also gives a target of around $20,000 as part of the build-up to Bitcoin’s next block subsidy halving event in April 2024.
If a macro low is reached, Bitcoin will be repeating the behavior of the pre-halving year of 2019.
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