Bitcoin (BTC) is predicted to experience a period of up to one-and-a-half years of “boredom” while the bull market starts to take off.
In its most recent weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics company Glassnode foretold of a difficult period ahead for Bitcoin holders.
Glassnode: Bitcoin hodlers set for 12 months’ “gradual accumulation”
After achieving a 70% increase in the first quarter of 2023, Bitcoin has been struggling to maintain its momentum, causing mixed opinions about what the future holds for its price.
As the 2024 block subsidy halving approaches, some anticipate a significant increase in the coming year, while others think it may take until 2025 for a new record high to be reached.
Glassnode has indications that the typical pre-bull market stage is unfolding, yet long-term holders will still require a significant amount of endurance.
Examining the “activity” of the BTC supply, which it characterizes as “the inclination of Bitcoin holders to spend or keep their coins,” researchers uncovered mass accumulation.
At present, Liveliness is in a long-term downward trend that began in May 2021 when the bear market started. It has been observed that a similar pattern has emerged as compared to the 2018-2020 cycle, as coins are gradually being transferred to cold storage and taken off the market by those who are HODLing.
Glassnode noted that a decline in exchange holdings suggests that the supply is becoming increasingly scarce, meaning it is held in private cold storage and not available for purchase.
Bitcoin wealth transfer “uninterrupted”
The focus is currently on the more speculative end of the hodler base, those referred to as short-term holders, as reported by Cointelegraph.
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These investors have held their coins for no more than 155 days, and their collective cost basis of approximately $26,400 is being watched as a short-term support level.
Glassnode further noted that, based on wallet entity size, not all investors are in acquisition mode; the largest investors, known as whales, are currently net sellers.
“In general, the market seems to be in a period of gradual accumulation, indicating that there is still a degree of demand in spite of the recent regulatory challenges imposed by the US on major exchanges,” the statement read, alluding to the regulatory pressures recently experienced by major exchanges.
Researchers believe that for a seismic trend shift to take place, another halving must occur and pass.
“Digital asset markets are exhibiting little enthusiasm as indicated by a number of market energy metrics. Volatility, volumes, and realized value have all dropped to multi-year lows, signifying that liquidity and enthusiasm have been replaced by investor disinterest,” the authors concluded.
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