Crypto market analysis - SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, AVAX - what to buy in January 2022.
Price analysis 12/11: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, AVAX

Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) closed with gains of 9.55%, but the new week started off weak, with prices falling near $40,500. This sharp correction in Bitcoin triggered liquidations in several altcoins, according to CoinGlass data, with cross-crypto long liquidations totaling more than $300 million on Dec. 11.

Corrections are a natural part of any uptrend, and the sharp pullback following the vertical rally is expected to shake out the weaker hands and provide long-term investors the opportunity to buy in at lower levels. But the bearish sentiment is unlikely to linger, as the crypto market is looking forward to several bullish catalysts in 2024.

Analysts anticipate one or more Bitcoin exchange-traded funds to receive regulatory approval in January, while the Bitcoin halving is scheduled for April. Goldman Sachs also forecasts a rate cut by the United States Federal Reserve in the third quarter of 2024, which could provide an additional boost to risky assets.

What are the important levels that could arrest the fall in Bitcoin and altcoins?

Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The bulls have been able to keep the S&P 500 Index (SPX) above the breakout level of 4,541 over the past few days, indicating that buyers are attempting to flip the level into support.

The uptrend of the 20-day exponential moving average (4,531) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers breach the overhead resistance at 4,650, the index could gain momentum and surge to 4,800.

The bullish outlook could be invalidated in the short term if the price drops and falls below the 20-day EMA. This would show that there is heavy selling at higher levels. The index could then plunge to the 50-day simple moving average (4,393).

U.S. Dollar Index price analysis

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) bounced off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 102.55 on Nov. 29, suggesting buying crypto in the United States even when the price is falling.

The relief rally has reached the 20-day EMA (104), where the bears are mounting a stiff defense. A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they have not allowed the price of AVAX to dip much below the 20-day EMA.

There is a minor resistance at 104.50, but if this level is scaled, the index could rise to the 50-day SMA (105). The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint suggest a range formation in the near term. The strong support on the downside is at 102.46.

Bitcoin price analysis

The attempt to push Bitcoin’s price above $44,700 was unsuccessful on Dec. 11, which may have caused traders to sell. On the brighter side, the long tail on the candlestick indicates that buyers were able to bring the BTC/USDT pair back up to the 20-day EMA ($40,708). Bulls will try to break the $44,700 barrier again, but bears may still be in control. The negative divergence on the RSI suggests that the bullish momentum is weakening.

If the crypto falls below the 20-day EMA, it could lead to a deeper correction to the breakout level of $37,980. This level is likely to be met with strong buying from the bulls. Conversely, a break and close above $44,700 will indicate that the bulls are back in charge.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) dropped from $2,403 on Dec. 9 and fell below the $2,200 breakout level on Dec. 11, suggesting that the crypto bulls are exiting. The price action of the past few days has also formed a negative divergence on the RSI, signifying that the bullish momentum is weakening. However, the bulls are attempting to protect the 20-day EMA ($2,186).

If the price rebounds from the current level, the bulls will attempt to revive the uptrend by pushing the ETH/USDT pair above $2,403. This could potentially drive the pair up to $2,500 and then $3,000.

This positive outlook will be invalidated if the price closes below the 20-day EMA, which may result in a deeper correction to the 50-day SMA ($2,012).

BNB price analysis

On Dec. 11, BNB (BNB) experienced an outside-day candlestick pattern, signaling a competitive struggle between buyers and sellers.

The long tail on the day’s candlestick indicates strong buying at lower levels. If the price stays above $239.2, the BNB/USDT pair could gain momentum and surge to $265. This level might be a difficult barrier to breach, but if the buyers succeed, the pair will form a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.

The trend will shift in favor of the bears if they drive and maintain the price below $223. The pair could then plunge to the key support at $203.

XRP price analysis

On Dec. 8, XRP (XRP) surged above the $0.67 resistance, but the crypto bulls were unable to maintain the breakout on Dec. 9. This could indicate selling pressure at higher levels.

On Dec. 10, the bulls once again attempted to drive the price above $0.67, however, the crypto bears resisted. This prompted a sharp pullback that fell below the 50-day SMA ($0.62) on Dec. 11. If the price closes below the 50-day SMA, the XRP/USDT pair could drop to the significant support at $0.56.

If the price increases from the current level, it will show buying on dips. The bulls will then try to surpass the resistance at $0.67. If they succeed, the pair may rise to $0.74, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) is facing selling pressure at the overhead hurdle of $78. This could have triggered the pullback on Dec. 11.

The SOL/USDT pair is finding support at the 20-day EMA ($63), suggesting that lower levels continue to attract buyers. If bulls can sustain the rebound, the pair could retest the high at $78. An effective break and close above this level could potentially lead to a rally to the psychological level of $100.

If bears want to prevent the rally, they will have to push the price below the 20-day EMA. This could result in a deeper correction toward the important support at $51.

Cardano price analysis

Recent days saw buyers pushing Cardano (ADA) past the resistance of $0.60, though the higher levels could not be sustained. This caused the RSI to plunge deep into the overbought zone, indicating that the rally was overstretched in the short-term. This may have prompted short-term bulls to take profits, resulting in the pullback on Dec. 11.

The ADA/USDT pair is attempting to find support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.51. If the level holds, buyers will make another attempt to reach the local high at $0.65. Conversely, a break below $0.51 could cause the pair to slide to the 20-day EMA ($0.45).

Dogecoin price analysis

The bears are posing a strong challenge to Dogecoin’s (DOGE) rally at $0.11, as seen from the long wick on the Dec. 11 candlestick.

The crypto could pull down to the 20-day EMA ($0.09), a critical level to observe. A powerful bounce off the 20-day EMA will signify that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying the dips, increasing the likelihood of a break above $0.11. If that happens, the DOGE/USDT pair may jump to $0.15.

On the contrary, a drop below the 20-day EMA will demonstrate that traders are aggressively booking profits. The pair may then extend the decline to the 50-day SMA ($0.08).

Avalanche price analysis

Avalanche (AVAX) has seen a strong uptrend in recent days. On Dec. 9, buyers were able to push the crypto past the $31 resistance level, and it eventually reached $38 on Dec. 10.

The surge caused the RSI to move into the overbought region, indicating that a correction or consolidation could be in store in the near future. This was confirmed by the pullback on Dec. 11, which suggests that short-term traders may be taking profits.

If buyers can keep the crypto from slipping below $31, it increases the chances of a rally above $38. The AVAX/USDT pair may rise to $46 and even $50. Conversely, if the price turns down and falls below $31, it could be the start of a deeper correction to the 20-day EMA ($25.85).

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