Metric Flags ‘1st Stage Bull Market’ as Bitcoin Spending Copies History

As the price of Bitcoin (BTC) increases, recent analysis shows that long-term holders of BTC are returning to the market. On July 13, Philip Swift, creator of the on-chain data resource LookIntoBitcoin, tweeted about the classic bull market behavior among “older” BTC investors.

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Value Days Destroyed Multiple prints BTC price bull signal

The current Bitcoin price cycle may be sparking debates about how high BTC’s value could reach, but one thing is certain: Hodler behavior is consistent. BTC/USD has more than doubled since 2023, leading to an increase in on-chain spending velocity, which is a sign of profit-taking activity.

Sharing a chart of the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple, Swift noted that the current cycle is not much different from the previous ones in this regard. “Increased onchain spending volume showing where we are in the cycle right now,” his Twitter post said.

VDD is based on the existing Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which measures the periods of inactivity when a certain amount of BTC moves on-chain. It takes into account the current BTC price and its multiple then compares the 30-day result with the 365-day average.

“It is able to highlight when older coins begin to rapidly enter the market to be sold,” Swift explained in an instructional guide on LookIntoBitcoin. The VDD Multiple currently stands at 1.32, slightly lower than its 2023 peak of 1.37 in April. According to Swift, this is a sign of a “1st stage bull market.”

Checkmate, the lead on-chain analyst at data firm Glassnode, commented on the findings, saying: “It is remarkable how consistent the cycles are. Humans reacting the same, given similar stimulus.”

Not just Bitcoin diamond hands

Glassnode data reveals how appealing it might be for different kinds of hodlers to cash out at the current prices.

The market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio for short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs) of Bitcoin shows that both categories of investors are considerably in the black.

Coins that have been dormant for at least 155 days, known as LTH coins, are worth 1.52 times more than when they last moved. The same ratio for STH coins is 1.12.

As reported by Cointelegraph, STHs have a growing influence on the BTC price.

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