As January 2022 approaches, K33 research analysts believe that the approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is “nailed on”, with the recent spate of ETF updates from filers such as BlackRock and ARK Invest only adding to the likelihood of an approval.
In a Dec. 19 report, K33 head of research Anders Helseth and senior analyst Vetle Lunde noted that Bitcoin (BTC) spot trading volumes have been substantially higher than in previous months, but open interest on BTC perpetual contracts had fallen to new yearly lows, indicating “no signs of retail froth.”
On the other hand, institutional investors on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have increased their appetite for Bitcoin-related risk, with CME open interest growing by 3,100 BTC in the last week.
However, the analysts predict that this trend won’t be maintained after the spot ETFs are approved, as there will be a “significant rotation” out of futures-based ETFs on the CME.
Altcoin season could be beneficial for Bitcoin
The report also noted a few “pockets of euphoria” in altcoins such as Solana (SOL), Ordinals (ORDI) and Bonk (BONK), which have gained 22%, 114% and 338%, respectively, over the last 20 days.
Though many market commentators often suggest that this type of frenzied market activity is a sign that the market is close to the peak, the analysts clarified that this could be a plus for Bitcoin.
“The altcoin gala takes away the froth, leaving ‘boring old bitcoin’ less exposed to liquidation cascades. In that sense, altcoins can act as a positive pressure valve for thrill seekers, allowing for healthier leverage conditions in BTC.”
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