The S&P 500 Index continued its march toward its all-time high with a 3% gain in July, as signs of receding inflationary pressures and expectations of an end to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle boosted risk-on sentiment. However, Bitcoin (BTC) failed to rally, largely remaining range-bound in July and is on track to end the month with a loss of more than 3%. Traders are now wondering when the range will break and in which direction.
Typically, the longer a crypto stays in the range, the more force is needed for a breakout. Once the price escapes the range, the next trending move is likely to be strong. However, it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty, so it is better to wait for the price to sustain above or below the range before taking large bets.
With Bitcoin trading inside a range, could the action shift to altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been on an uptrend, with bulls holding their ground when bears tried to pull the price back below the breakout level of 4,513 on July 27. This suggests that buyers are trying to flip the 4,513 level into support.
The upsloping moving averages indicate that bulls are in control, but the negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that the bullish rally crypto could be slowing down.
The up move is likely to face strong selling at 4,650. If the price turns down from this level but rebounds off the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,509, it will suggest that the uptrend remains intact.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. That could open the gates for a potential drop to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,371.
U.S. Dollar Index price analysis
On July 27, the bears attempted to push the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) below the 100.82 support, but the bulls fiercely defended the level, sparking a strong buying rally that drove the price above the 20-day EMA (101.46).
The bulls will now try to extend the recovery to the 50-day SMA (102.51) and later to the downtrend line. This is a key level to keep an eye on, as a break above it could suggest that the bears are losing their grip. The index could then rally to the stiff overhead resistance at 106.
Conversely, the bears would need to sink and sustain the price below 100.82 to establish their supremacy. The index could then slide to 99.57. A break below this support could signal the resumption of the downtrend.
Bitcoin price analysis
The bears are attempting to take control of the market as Bitcoin dropped below the 50-day SMA ($29,442) on July 30. However, the long tail on the day’s candlestick indicates that buying is occurring near the horizontal support at $28,861.
The 20-day EMA ($29,624) is sloping down and the RSI is below 44, suggesting that the bears have a slight edge. Any rally that is attempted could be met with selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from this resistance and breaks below $28,861, it could start a decline to $27,500 and then to $26,000.
If the bulls want to prevent the fall, they will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA. The BTC/USDT pair could first rise to $29,500 and then to the $31,500 to $32,400 resistance rally crypto zone.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) has been trading between the moving averages for the past few days, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears about the next directional move.
Generally, tight ranges are followed by a range breakout that starts the next leg of the trending move. If the price plunges below the 50-day SMA ($1,859), it will indicate that bears have overpowered the bulls. That may start a downward move toward $1,700.
Instead, if the price turns up and closes above the 20-day EMA, it will signal the start of a short-term up move. The ETH/USDT pair could first rally to $1,929 and thereafter attempt to break the psychological resistance at $2,000.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) has been stuck in a wide range between $0.67 and $0.85, with the bulls managing to protect the support but not succeeding in launching a strong rally.
The slowly climbing 20-day EMA ($0.69) and the RSI in the positive zone suggest that the bulls have an edge. If buyers can break through the barrier at $0.75, the XRP/USDT pair could start a relief rally to the resistance at $0.85.
On the other hand, if the price drops and falls below the 20-day EMA, it will imply that each minor rise is being sold. The pair could then retest the support at $0.69. If this support gives way, the pair could extend the decline to the breakout level of $0.56.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) continues to trade inside the symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears. The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears.
If the price sustains above the moving averages, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to the resistance line. A break and close above the triangle could propel the price to $265.
On the other hand, if the price breaks below the moving averages, it may plunge to $220, suggesting that bears are trying to pull the pair to the support line.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.31) on July 28, but the rally lacked momentum. This suggests that demand dried up at higher levels.
If the price skids back below the 20-day EMA, the ADA/USDT pair could consolidate inside a tight range between $0.30 and $0.32 for some time. Buyers will have to kick the price above $0.32 to start an up move to $0.34 and subsequently to $0.38.
Contrarily, if the price continues lower and plummets below the 50-day SMA ($0.29), it may trap several aggressive crypto bulls. That may start a rush to the exit, resulting in a deeper correction to $0.28 and then to $0.26.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) is facing selling pressure just above the $0.08 level, but the bulls have not ceded ground to the bears, which is a minor positive. This suggests that the buyers are expecting a rally crypto in the near future.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($0.07) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the bulls have the upper hand. If the price turns up from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will attempt to drive the DOGE/USDT pair above the overhead resistance. If they succeed, the pair may start its northward march to $0.10 and eventually to $0.11.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair may then slide to the strong crypto level at $0.07.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) is attempting to find a foothold at the 20-day EMA ($24.14), but the bulls have been unable to sustain the rally. This suggests that the bears are still in control.
If the price drops and holds below the 20-day EMA, the SOL/USDT pair could slide to $22.30. This is the key short-term support to watch. If the price bounces off this level, the pair may range between $22.30 and $27.12 for some time. The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint also suggest a range formation in the near future.
A break and close above $27.12 will indicate that the bulls are back in the driving seat. The pair may then rally to $32.13. On the other hand, a break below $22.30 could push the pair to the 50-day SMA ($20.71).
Litecoin price analysis
On July 29, buyers drove Litecoin (LTC) over the 20-day EMA ($92), but could not conquer the resistance at $97.
The flat 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint suggest the possibility of a range formation. Buyers took advantage of the dip on July 30, as evidenced by the long tail on the candlestick, but they failed to capitalize on the strength on July 31. This suggests that bears are strongly defending the $97 level.
If the price dips below the 50-day SMA ($91), the LTC/USDT pair could drop to $87. A strong rally off this level may keep the pair in a range-bound state for a few days. Buyers will have to push the price above $97 to open the gates for a big crypto rally to $106.
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