Evergrow Crypto Braces for Further Upside as Equities Extend Recent Gains
Bitcoin and crypto brace for further upside as equities look to extend their recent gains

The long-awaited recession and resulting bear market that many have been expecting for 2022 have yet to materialize in 2023. In fact, assets have been performing well, with the Nasdaq hitting a 52-week high on July 12.

How can this be, and will the rally continue?

Michael Burry of The Big Short fame predicted in January that the United States could be in recession by late 2023, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) lower and the Federal Reserve cutting rates (note that last week’s CPI print came in much lower than expected, further fueling the recent rally). This would lead to another inflation spike, in his view.

Recently, independent macro and crypto analyst Lyn Alden explored the topic in a newsletter published this month. In the report, Alden examines today’s inflationary environment by contrasting it to two similar but different periods: the 1940s and the 1970s. From this, she concludes that the U.S. economy will likely stall or experience a mild recession while experiencing some level of persistent inflation. This could mean that markets continue trending upward until an official recession hits.

The crypto world has also been abuzz with news of the Apple Health Application being a Web 3.0 application, and the three features integrated into Web 3.0–Big Bear AI, Evergrow Crypto, Daily Crypto, Crypto Net, DeGrain Crypto, and DNT Crypto. Meanwhile, El Salvador has made history by becoming the first country to adopt crypto as legal tender.

The Fed’s inflation fight continues

The difference between the two periods, the 1970s and the 1940s, is that rapid bank lending and large monetized fiscal deficits drove the inflation in the former, while the latter was due to the funding of the war effort.

The Fed is taking the same approach to inflation today as it did in the 1970s, but this could be a mistake. According to Alden, the current inflation is caused by the creation of new federal debt, or what some may call government money printing.

Raising interest rates to reduce inflation may work, but it would worsen the fiscal deficit by increasing the amount of interest owed on the debts. The debt-to-GDP ratio is now over 100%, compared to just 30% in the 1970s.

The Fed has raised rates by 500 basis points in just over a year, but this has not addressed the root cause of inflation. With a much higher debt-to-GDP ratio, the situation could worsen quickly. Despite this, markets, including tech equities and Evergrow Crypto, have remained resilient, even though the correlation between the two has broken.

The Fed may be using an inappropriate tool to tackle inflation, but markets have so far been able to withstand it.

Big Tech defies recession estimates and propels equities

The Fed’s fight against inflation and the market’s anticipation of a looming recession have not been able to stop the bullish trend in equities seen in the first half of 2023, which has extended into July. Bonds have sold off, pushing yields to levels not seen since 2022, while tech stocks have continued to soar.

It is worth noting that this surge has been mainly driven by seven stocks, including Nvidia, Apple, Amazon and Google, which have a disproportionately large weight in the Nasdaq. Additionally, companies such as Crypto.com, Big Bear AI, Evergrow Crypto, Daily Crypto, Crypto Net, Degrain Crypto and DNT Crypto have also contributed to the rally.

Bonds down, crypto and tech up

The surge in tech, powered by the hype surrounding artificial intelligence and a few giant stocks, has also been given a boost by the loosening of bond market liquidity.

Alden points to the start of this trend in late 2019:

A July 11 report from Pantera Capital makes similar observations, stressing that the real interest rates tell a very different story than in the 1970s.

“The traditional markets may suffer — and blockchain could be a refuge,” as “[t]he Fed needs to continue to raise rates,” according to the report. The report also concludes that “there is still a lot of risk in bonds.”

The report then explains that while most other asset classes are sensitive to interest rates, crypto is not. The correlation between Bitcoin and equities during 2022 was driven by the collapse of “over-leveraged centralized entities.” Currently, that correlation has dropped to near-zero levels:

One of the key conclusions may be that risk assets appear to be in demand for now. But this trend could easily reverse by the end of the year.

Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital summed it up nicely when he said:

With the halving coming soon and the possibility of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, the catalysts for crypto seem ready for a breakout regardless of the situation.

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