The United States legislators in the House and Senate came to a temporary agreement on Sep. 30 and averted a government shutdown for 45 days. This news could have acted as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s (BTC) sharp rally on Oct. 1. Additionally, the historically strong performance of Bitcoin in October could have boosted sentiment further and possibly started a crypto bull run.
The U.S. stock markets are also in a sweet spot in October. Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has risen by an average of 0.9% in October, between 1950 and 2021. However, investors should not become too complacent as the stock market weathered one of its worst declines in the Black Monday crash in October 1987.
While a short-term up-move is possible in the cryptocurrency markets, it is unlikely to start a runaway rally. Higher levels are likely to witness profit-booking as the skyrocketing U.S. dollar index (DXY) could keep the crypto market live on the edge of their seats.
What are the important overhead resistance levels in Bitcoin and altcoins that may attract sellers? Let’s analyze the charts to find out if the crypto market cap is ready for a crypto game or if crypto down today will lead to a crypto crash today.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index crypto crashed today, plunging below the formidable support at 4,325 on Sep. 22. That completed a bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating the start of a downward move.
Usually, the crypto market live turns around and retests the breakdown level, which in this case is 4,325. That happened on Sep. 29. The neckline of the setup is likely to witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.
If the crypto market cap turns down and breaks below 4,238, it will indicate that bears are in control. That could accelerate selling and the index may dive to the pattern target of 4,043.
Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling at 4,325 and then at the 20-day exponential moving average ($4,370). A break above this resistance will be the first sign of strength. The index could then ascend to the crypto bull run downtrend line.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index has seen a remarkable surge in recent days. On Sep. 26, the bulls pushed the price above the 106 resistance level, signaling the start of a crypto bull run.
The bears tried to push the price back below 106 on Sep. 29, but the long tail on the candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The bulls will attempt to make 106 a support level. If they succeed, the index could rally to 108.
The bears will not give up easily. They will try to drag the price back below 106 and then the 20-day EMA. If they are successful, it will trap the aggressive bulls. The index could then decline to the 50-day simple moving average ($103).
Bitcoin price analysis
On Oct. 1, Bitcoin surged past the immediate resistance of $27,500 and then extended the crypto bull run above $28,143 on Oct. 2. The ease with which $28,143 was conquered indicates that more is likely to come.
The bulls will attempt to push the crypto market live to $31,000, where they may face stiff resistance from the bears. If the price suddenly drops from this level, it will suggest that the BTC/USDT pair is still locked inside the broad range between $31,000 and $24,800.
The first support on the downside is $28,143 and then the 20-day EMA ($26,862). If the price slides back below $28,143, it could trap the aggressive bulls. That could then drag the crypto market cap down to the 20-day EMA. Sellers will need to pull the price below this level if they want to gain control.
Ether price analysis
On Sep. 29, Ether (ETH) pierced the 50-day SMA ($1,652) and then surged on Oct. 1, pushing the price to the overhead resistance of $1,746. The 20-day EMA ($1,644) has turned up and the RSI is above 64, suggesting that the crypto bull run is in full control. This could result in a double bottom pattern with a target of $1,959.
Nevertheless, sellers may attempt to stop the recovery at $1,746 and drag the price below the moving averages to weaken the bullish momentum. This could lead to the crypto market live staying inside the range for some time.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) was pushed away from the 50-day SMA ($216) on Sep. 29 and 30 but found support at the 20-day EMA ($214), indicating a crypto bull run sentiment where dips are being purchased.
The moving averages are close to a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, showing that bulls have the edge. A break and close above $220 will suggest the start of a new crypto market live uptrend. The BNB/USDT pair could first rally to $235 and subsequently to $250.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from $220, the bears will again attempt to pull the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it will indicate that the consolidation may extend for a few more days.
XRP price analysis
On Sep. 29, XRP (XRP) broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern and the bulls defended the breakout level on Sep. 30, indicating a crypto bull run. Buyers will now attempt to push the price to the resistance at $0.56, which is a critical level to watch since a surge above it could point to the start of a new uptrend towards the pattern target of $0.64.
Alternatively, if the price dips from $0.56, it could mean that the bears are still in control and they are continuing to sell on rallies. This would result in XRP/USDT pair staying in the range between $0.41 and $0.56 for a while longer.
Solana price analysis
On Oct. 1, Solana (SOL) surged past the $22.30 resistance, hinting that the crypto bull run is in full swing.
The sudden up-move has caused the RSI to enter the overbought territory, suggesting that the rally may soon meet resistance. Bears could try to halt the recovery at $25.50 and then again at $27.12. If the price reverses from this point, it will demonstrate that the $14 to $27.12 range is still intact.
The significant support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($20.50). Sellers will have to drive the SOL/USDT pair below this level to weaken the bullish momentum.
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) surged beyond the downtrend line and the 50-day SMA ($0.25) on Oct. 1, invalidating the forming bearish descending triangle pattern.
Generally, the failure of a bearish setup is a constructive sign as crypto bulls who have been waiting on the sidelines jump in to buy. But prior to that, the price could reverse and retest the breakout level.If the level holds, it will suggest that the bulls have transformed the downtrend line into support. The ADA/USDT pair could then initiate an up-move to $0.29 and further to $0.32.
On the other hand, if the price dips and re-enters the triangle, it will imply that the markets have turned down the higher levels. The pair may then retest the vital support at $0.24.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen some bullish activity, as it moved above the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sep. 29 and then reached the 50-day SMA ($0.06) on Oct. 1. The 20-day EMA is currently flat, but the RSI has jumped into the positive zone, indicating that the crypto market momentum is turning positive.
A close above the 50-day SMA could lead to a possible crypto bull run, pushing the DOGE/USDT pair to $0.07. This level may act as a minor hurdle, but if it is crossed the pair may climb to $0.08.
The current crypto market live conditions may not be favorable to the bears, as they need to quickly push the price back below the 20-day EMA if they wish to prevent the rally. The pair may then retest the crucial support at $0.06.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin’s (TON) relief rally hit a peak of $2.31 on Sep. 28, before the crypto market witnessed a bearish trend. The price dropped but the bulls managed to keep the $2.07 support on Oct. 1.
The bears continued to sell on Oct. 2 and dragged the price below the important support at $2.07. If the crypto market remains below this level, the selling pressure could increase and the TON/USDT pair could plunge to the 50-day SMA ($1.84).
On the upside, the bulls must push the price above $2.31 to open the possibility of a retest of the overhead resistance at $2.59. This level could again attract strong selling from the bears.
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