The crypto market has been on a tear in recent weeks, as Bitcoin (BTC) price has climbed by 15% and 10.45% in the last two weeks, decoupling from the S&P 500 Index which dropped 2.53% and 2.39% respectively. Despite this positive sentiment, traders must be wary of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on Nov. 1, as a surprise announcement may cause some volatility in the crypto market. CME’s FedWatch Tool projects a 98% probability that rates will remain unchanged.
The surge in crypto prices is likely also due to expectations that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the near future. If any negative news arises, it could lead to a crypto sell off and a reversal of the current crypto recovery. With that in mind, it is important to analyze the crypto sentiment analysis and identify the important support levels that must hold for the bullishness to remain.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) remains in a strong downtrend. The crypto prices today are close to the strong support zone between 4,050 and 4,100.
The sharp crypto sell off of the past few days pushed the relative strength index (RSI) into the oversold territory, suggesting that a crypto recovery may be possible. On the upside, the bears are expected to sell near the 20-day exponential moving average (4,255).
If the crypto prices today turn down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the crypto sentiment analysis remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. The bears will then again try to sink the price below the support zone. If they succeed, the index could plummet toward 3,800. This negative view will invalidate in the near term if the price rises and sustains above the 20-day EMA.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rebounded off the 50-day simple moving average (105) on Oct. 24, indicating that lower levels are attracting buyers.
The rising moving averages suggest a crypto recovery, and the crypto sentiment analysis is positive, but the negative divergence on the RSI could signal a crypto sell off. That could keep the index range-bound between 105.36 and 107.35 until the crypto federal reserve meeting in May 2022.
If buyers maintain the price above the 20-day EMA (106.23), the bulls will attempt to drive the index above 107.35. If they succeed, the index may surge toward 111. If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to drag and sustain the price back below 105.36. The index may then fall to 104.50.
Bitcoin price analysis
Following the strong rally, Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase between $33,390 and $35,380, indicating that bulls are not in a hurry to sell off their crypto holdings.
Despite the overbought indicators on the RSI, the rising moving averages suggest that the crypto sentiment remains bullish. If buyers manage to push the price above $35,280, the BTC/USDT pair could surge to $40,000, which is likely to be a formidable resistance.
On the contrary, if bears sink the price below $33,390, the pair could plunge to $32,400 and then to $31,000. This zone is expected to witness solid buying as a break below it could lead to a sell off and the crypto prices could drop to $28,143.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) has been trading above the breakout level of $1,746, but the bulls have failed to extend the crypto recovery. This indicates that demand for ETH has weakened at higher levels.
The ETH/USDT pair could remain range-bound between $1,746 and $1,865 for a few days. The rising moving averages and the RSI in the overbought territory suggest that the bulls have the upper hand.
If buyers push the crypto prices today above $1,865, the pair could rally to $2,000. However, the bears are likely to defend this level fiercely.
The key support on the downside is $1,746 and then the 20-day EMA ($1,705). The crypto sell off will resume if the bears sink and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA.
BNB price analysis
The crypto sentiment analysis for BNB (BNB) indicates that bulls have a slight edge as the price has been stuck between $235 and $203 for the past several days, with the rising 20-day EMA ($219) and the RSI in the positive territory.
If bulls can sustain the rebound off $223, they will try to push the crypto prices today above the overhead resistance at $235, which could signal a sustained recovery to $250 and eventually to $265.
On the other hand, the bears may attempt to drag the crypto sell off below the 20-day EMA, suggesting that the BNB/USDT pair may extend its stay inside the range until the crypto fed meeting in May 2022.
XRP price analysis
After trading between $0.56 and the 20-day EMA ($0.53) for a few days, XRP (XRP) finally broke through the resistance on Oct. 30.
The 20-day EMA is trending upwards and the RSI is in the overbought zone, suggesting that the bulls are in control. There is minor resistance at $0.59. If the bulls can push through this level, XRP/USDT could climb up to $0.66.However, the bears are not ready to give up yet. They will try to drag the price back below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it could lead to a crypto sell off and trap some of the more bullish traders. The pair could be stuck between $0.46 and $0.56 for a few more days.
Solana price analysis
After a minor crypto sell off, the bulls have asserted their dominance in the SOL/USDT pair, pushing the price above $33.90. The next major resistance level is expected to be $38.79, but if buyers manage to break through, the pair could reach $48.
The important support to watch on the downside is $31. If the pair slips below this level, it may suggest that the bulls are quickly unloading their positions, which could lead to a crypto recovery to the 20-day EMA ($28.73).
The crypto sentiment analysis suggests that the crypto prices today are in an uptrend, with corrections being shallow and short-lived. This could be confirmed or denied by the crypto federal reserve meeting in May 2022.
Cardano price analysis
The bulls have been struggling to break above the $0.30 resistance level for Cardano (ADA) despite sustaining above the breakout level of $0.28 in the past few days. This indicates that buyers are still applying pressure, and if they manage to conquer the obstacle at $0.30, ADA/USDT pair could surge to $0.32 and then to $0.34.
Alternatively, if the price dips from $0.30, it would imply that bears are defending the level strongly. The pair might then fluctuate between $0.28 and $0.30 for a while. A break and close below the 20-day EMA ($0.27) would give bears the advantage over the crypto sell off.
Dogecoin price analysis
The battle between the bulls and the bears near the $0.07 mark is proving to be tough for Dogecoin (DOGE).
However, there is a minor positive in that the bulls are buying the dips below $0.07, suggesting that the sentiment has shifted from selling on rallies to buying on dips. The bulls will now attempt to break the resistance at $0.07, which could potentially lead to a northward march to $0.08.
The key support to watch out for on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($0.06). If this support is breached, the crypto sell off could take the pair to the solid support at $0.06.
Toncoin price analysis
On Oct. 27, Toncoin (TON) went below the moving averages, but the bears couldn’t capitalize on this, indicating that selling pressure is weak at lower levels. The 20-day EMA ($2.07) has flattened out and the RSI is close to the midpoint, suggesting an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. If the crypto prices today manage to break above the moving averages, the bulls may try to push the TON/USDT pair above $2.31, with the possibility of reaching $2.59.
On the other hand, if the crypto sell off takes place from the averages, it could mean that the bears are trying to gain the upper hand. A break below $2 could open the way for a decrease to $1.89.
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