Can Ethereum Reverse its 15-Month Losing Streak Against Bitcoin?

The value of Ether (ETH), the native token of Ethereum, is currently trading at its lowest point in 15 months against Bitcoin (BTC), since Ethereum changed to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Is this trend going to continue throughout 2023? Let’s examine the charts to find out.

Web 1.0 vs Web 2.0 vs Web 3.0

The crypto market is constantly changing, with the latest crypto prices and the crypto of the week. The upcoming week is also sure to bring new developments, as we look ahead to May 2022.

Metaverse vs Web 3.0

Comparing web 1.0, web 2.0 and web 3.0, it’s clear that the crypto market is constantly evolving. It will be interesting to see how the crypto market evolves over the next few weeks and months.

Ethereum price breaks below critical support vs. Bitcoin

The ETH/BTC pair dropped to as low as 0.056 BTC earlier this week, breaking below its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near 0.058 BTC. This raises the possibility of a selloff in the crypto market in 2023.

The 200-week EMA has been a reliable support level for ETH/BTC bulls in the past. For instance, the pair rebounded 75% three months after testing the wave support in July 2022, but dropped over 25% after losing the same support in October 2020.

If the crypto market does not reclaim its 200-week EMA as support, the next downside target looks to be around its 0.5 Fib line near 0.051 BTC in 2023, down about 9.5% from current price levels.

Conversely, ETH price may rebound toward its 50-week EMA (the red wave) near 0.065 BTC if the crypto market reclaims the 200-week EMA as support.

Bitcoin bull case overshadows Ethereum

Data on institutional capital flow indicates Ethereum’s persistent weakness when compared to Bitcoin. As of October 6th, CoinShares reported that Bitcoin-specific investment funds had gathered $246 million YTD, while Ethereum funds had experienced outflows of $104 million.

This discrepancy is likely due to the increasing anticipation of the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETF) in the U.S. Crypto market experts suggest that a spot Bitcoin ETF could attract $600 billion.

The upcoming Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 24th, 2024, is also a bullish factor for Bitcoin versus the altcoin market. The halving will reduce the Bitcoin miners’ block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, effectively cutting new supply in half.