As Bitcoin (BTC) enters a new week, the July monthly close approaches, giving traders the chance for associated volatility. BTC price performance has been stuck in one of its narrowest-ever ranges, just below $30,000, and the question on everyone’s mind is whether or not a breakout is coming. While some believe that Bitcoin is due for a comedown, data suggests that buying pressure is returning at current levels, adding to the potential of a long-term bull flag confirming on the monthly close.
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Sticky BTC price range could shift after July monthly close
Bitcoin was remarkably stable last week, with the US interest rate hike and macroeconomic data having no effect on its narrow trading range.
BTC traders have had to accept the corridor between $29,000 and $29,500 — which remains intact as of now, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
Although the weekly close saw some sharp moves, a short-term trend is still missing.
Next in line is the monthly close, which could result in BTC/USD recording losses of 3.5%.
“The market is going to try to shake you out as we move to and thru the Monthly close,” Material Indicators commented.
A chart of the BTC/USD order book on the biggest crypto exchange Binance showed the current trading range outlined by bid and ask liquidity.
Speaking of liquidity, Daan Crypto Trades highlighted the key levels to watch on low timeframes.
“The ~29K and ~29.6K levels correspond nicely with out current low timeframe range so good to keep watching those regions,” he told Twitter followers via CoinGlass.
CoinGlass also indicated that, historically, July had been a “green” month for Bitcoin for the past six years, with the exception of 6.6% losses in 2019.
Jelle, another trader, predicted that the upcoming week would be the calm before the storm for markets.
“Expecting this week to be slow, but fireworks to start next week. Preparing accordingly,” he said, adding that he was already accumulating BTC.
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MACD signal forms key Bitcoin bull argument
Despite being on course to close July at a loss, Bitcoin is still exciting traders on monthly timeframes due to the upcoming moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator confirming a bullish crossover. This is traditionally seen as a precursor to extended BTC price upside.
MACD uses exponential moving averages (EMAs) to plot two lines on an asset’s price chart, and their interplay can form useful advance buy and sell signals. Stockmoney Lizards has already compared the potential impact of the upcoming cross to a similar event in late 2015, when Bitcoin was preparing the ground for its run to old all-time highs two years later.
Now, not only the monthly but also the daily MACD is improving prospects for bulls. According to analyst Kevin Svenson, both MACD and relative strength index (RSI) are “in a peculiar position” due to the lack of momentum. This could indicate that the web 3.0 market is about to make a move, as sentiment is currently extremely neutral.
The weekly MACD cross in August 2021 preceded Bitcoin’s recent all-time high of $69,000, which it saw just three months later.
U.S. jobs data follows hectic macro week
The calmer week for macroeconomic data means less of a chance that risk assets, including crypto, will find something to react to. However, the focus for the mood in the U.S. will be the unemployment data, as it has been repeatedly indicated that inflation is both abating and that the labor market has taken the inflationary cycle in its stride.
“A lot of important jobs data this week,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter summarized. Kobeissi also noted that around one quarter of S&P 500 firms were due to report earnings over the week.
“Economic data remains incredibly important as the Fed determines what to do in Sept,” it added, referring to the impact of data on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
The U.S. dollar strength is expected to take a fresh downturn, following the Fed’s rate hike last week after a June pause. Miles Johal believes that 102 is a formidable resistance for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and Bitcoin should benefit from this. “Expect HTF bullish action from $BTC and other risk assets while the DXY continues this web 3.0 downtrend,” part of his latest AI writing analysis read.
Stablecoin investors “load up” with Bitcoin under $30,000
Last week, the percentage of the BTC supply now held by long-term holders hit an all-time high of 75%. In response, investors have been accumulating stablecoins such as Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) ahead of the monthly close.
According to research firm Santiment, these key whale and shark wallets are “loading up” during Bitcoin’s visit below $30k. The move is seen as a sign that these investors are anticipating new volatility in the near future.
Last week, crypto exchange Bitfinex was also highlighted as a key indicator of BTC’s upcoming price movements. Analysts noted that the exchange’s Bitcoin to stables ratio “blows up in advance of every big bull move”.
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Whale wallet numbers reach a four-month low
At the same time, Cointelegraph has reported on noteworthy changes in whales’ BTC exposure, with net exposure down by 255,000 BTC since May 30.
The number of wallets holding 1,000 BTC ($294 million) or more confirms this, with Glassnode recording the lowest such wallet numbers in four months.
As of July 31, there were 2,006 wallets with a balance of at least 1,000 BTC, a decrease of around 35 since the start of July.
In contrast, wallets with at least 0.01 BTC ($294) hit a new all-time high of 12,214,918 on the same day.
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