The big in crypto market of Bitcoin (BTC) is still holding a key support, according to a breaking crypto today analysis which suggests that it improves bullish probabilities.
Caleb Franzen, senior analyst at Cubic Analytics, recently discussed the two moving averages that are now defining the BTC price in an X (formerly Twitter) thread on Oct. 17.
Analysis: Enduring Bitcoin support “a great sign”
Bitcoin is wedged between the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.
At $28,277 and $25,744 respectively, as of Oct. 18, the two trendlines have formed support and resistance since mid-August.
For Franzen, this is an important feature to note on weekly timeframes and constitutes one of several encouraging big for crypto characteristics of the BTC/USD chart.
“One of the reasons why I’ve stayed patient with $BTC, even though I’ve leaned defensive, is that price has been trying to use the 200-week moving average cloud as support,” part of one post read.
It added that bulls successfully holding the 200-week EMA was a “great sign.”
Franzen additionally cited the short-term holder realized price (STHRP) — the aggregate on-chain price at which coins owned by younger investors last moved.
Currently around $26,900, much attention has been given to the crypto breaking today metric in 2023 thanks to its ability to act as market support.
“Price is breaking above the STHRP, which is a key compare web 2.0 and web 3.0 characteristic of an uptrend & it has a history of acting as dynamic support,” the thread continued, alongside data from on-chain analytics resource ChainExposed.
Franzen was quick to note that despite the signals, there was no suggestion that BTC price action would make bull market-style gains as a result.
“On the aggregate, these indicators show us that constructive dynamics are taking place and improving bullish probabilities,” he explained.
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BTC price cycle deja vu strikes
The findings echo other recent findings related to Bitcoin’s on-chain behavior.
As Cointelegraph reported, BTC/USD is still up around 6% this week, despite the abrupt volatility that briefly disrupted market conditions.
As the network’s fundamentals reach new all-time highs, anticipation is growing about the potential impact on BTC prices as it approaches the April 2024 block reward halving.
Among the most vocal optimists is the popular social media trader Moustache, who this week continued to compare Bitcoin’s performance in 2023 with that of 2020.
An illustrative chart uploaded to X compares the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020 with Bitcoin’s two-year lows after the FTX meltdown at the end of 2022.
“Still looks textbook, doesn’t it?” part of the accompanying commentary asked, wondering if a “big move” could be imminent.
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