Bitcoin Halving: 135 Days to Go
The crypto space and its most prominent figures are starting to focus on the upcoming Bitcoin halving, an event that takes place every four years and decreases the number of new Bitcoins (BTC) entering the market.
At the upcoming halving, set for April 2024, the Bitcoin mining reward will be cut from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block.
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao recently posted on Twitter to remind everyone that the next BTC halving is only 135 days away.
Historically, the Bitcoin halving has been associated with a bullish trend in the BTC price due to the supply and demand effects. The halving of the new supply in the face of increasing demand often causes the BTC price to reach new heights in the months following the halving.
Pre-Halving Rally and Post-Halving Retracement in Bitcoin Cycles
Prior to the halving event in May 2020, the Bitcoin price was trading at less than $10,000. However, as the event drew nearer, bullish sentiment saw BTC’s price surpass the previous cycle’s all-time high of around $17,000. After the halving, the BTC price surged to an all-time high of almost $69,000.
Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital discussed the different phases of a BTC bull cycle on Twitter. According to him, the timeline can be divided into pre-halving and post-halving events, with approximately 60 days before the halving seeing a pre-halving rally as investors tend to “Buy the Hype” to “Sell the News.”
The pre-halving rally is usually followed by a retracement around the time of the actual halving. For instance, the pre-halving retracement in 2016 was 38%, while the 2020 pre-halving retracement was 20%. This is then followed by a multi-month reaccumulation phase, during which the BTC price rises and falls, with little gains during a period of stagnation. Many investors tend to get discouraged in this stage due to boredom, impatience, and disappointment with their BTC investment’s lack of performance in the halving’s immediate aftermath.
The accumulation phase is usually followed by a parabolic surge, in which Bitcoin breaks out from the reaccumulation area and reaches new heights. During this period, Bitcoin’s growth rate increases as it ascends to new all-time highs.
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