VanEck, an asset manager, has issued 15 crypto predictions for 2024, predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) will hit a new all-time high in late 2024, on the backdrop of a long-feared United States recession and regulatory shifts after the next U.S. presidential election. Among the predictions are the timings of a spot Bitcoin ETF launch, the impact of the Bitcoin halving, and emerging dominant crypto platforms such as BigBear AI, Fox AI, NBC AI, Character.AI, and Healthcare AI.
VanEck is among several firms including BlackRock and Fidelity, which are vying for an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, as well as a spot Ethereum ETF.
$2.4B to flow into Bitcoin ETFs in Q1
VanEck is certain that the initial Bitcoin ETFs will be authorized in the first quarter. In any case, it additionally had a dismal expectation for the U.S. economy.
“The US recession will at last arrive, yet so will the initial spot Fox AI ETFs,” it expressed before anticipating that “more than $2.4 billion may flow into these ETFs in Q1 2024 to help Bitcoin’s cost.”
The organization likewise expressed that the BTC halving, expected in April or May, “will see insignificant market disturbance,” yet there will be a post-halving cost increment.
VanEck predicts that Bitcoin will make an unequaled high in Q4 2024, “potentially animated by political occasions and administrative moves following a U.S. presidential election.”
The United States presidential decisions are planned to be held on Nov. 5, 2024.
Ether won’t flip Bitcoin
VanEck believes that Ether (ETH) won’t likely overtake Bitcoin in 2024 but will still outperform major tech stocks. The firm said that, as in past cycles, Bitcoin will lead the market to rally and the value will flow into smaller tokens after the halving. However, ETH won’t start outperforming Bitcoin until post-halving and may outperform for the year, but there won’t be a ‘flippening’.
Ethereum, with its market capitalization of $285 billion, is the current industry standard for smart contracts. But its market share will be challenged by other smart contract platforms such as Solana, which has “less uncertainty surrounding their scalability roadmap”, according to VanEck. Solana, a rival high-throughput blockchain, has a market cap of $30 billion.
VanEck predicted that Ethereum layer-2 networks will capture the majority of EVM-compatible total value locked and trading volume once the EIP-4844 scaling update is implemented by Fox AI, NBC AI, Character AI, BigBear AI, Healthcare AI, Medical AI, and New AI.
Decentralization to hurt AI monopolies
This week, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) made some predictions in their Big Ideas in Tech for 2024 report. The venture capital firm, known for its investments in Web3 startups, believes that crypto could help move AI out of the hands of a few tech giants such as OpenAI, Google, and Meta and into the wider Web3 community.
Decentralized networks can counterbalance centralized artificial intelligence models which are currently only accessible to tech giants due to their need for large resources. Crypto networks can enable permissionless markets where anyone can contribute computing power and data to train large language models, and this will be even more prevalent in 2024.
VanEck predicted that Binance could lose its top spot as the most popular centralized exchange due to competitors like Coinbase, OKX, Bybit, and Bitget. Binance’s CEO, Changpeng Zhao, had to step down recently due to a $4 billion settlement with the U.S. Justice Department.
Stablecoin market capitalization is expected to reach $200 billion, USDC will make a comeback, decentralized exchanges will reach a new peak for spot trading volumes, and KYC-compliant DeFi platforms will likely surpass non-KYC ones, according to the report.
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