Most ‘fear’ in 3 months as $26.4K becomes key — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin (BTC) has come out of a turbulent macro week to orbit around some traditional trend lines close to $26,000 — what could be in store for the future?

Despite the difficult trials traders have faced in the past week, the value of BTC remains steadfast.

Market participants are adopting a “wait and watch” approach as the biggest cryptocurrency enters a new week of trading without any clear direction.

Traditional markets in the United States will only be open on June 20, thus allowing for a day’s buffer before any unexpected events occur.

There is still a lot of work to be done from last week, one of which is BlackRock’s application for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF). Now, there are rumors that Fidelity Investments might be next.

What is needed to motivate the BTC price to move in a certain direction? Cointelegraph examines some of the major issues currently being discussed among traders and analysts.

No relief for nervous Bitcoin traders

The BTC/USD exchange rate experienced minimal fluctuation during the last week.

At a little over $26,000, the pair was resilient in the face of numerous potential sources of volatility throughout the week, becoming the epitome of stability.

A retreat to three-month lows was temporary, and traders are now hesitantly waiting for more signals concerning the trend while not yet assuming a pessimistic perspective.

“Crypto Tony stated in his summary of the day that he would stay put until there was evidence of a change in direction,”

Koala, a fellow trader, proposed that the price range would be between $23,000 and $31,000, with the lower end likely to be reached before the price returns to $27,000.

“He argued that we should run the equal lows before the equal highs in a set of equal highs and equal lows.”

The lower boundary for Credible Crypto was limited to $25,500.

I would not be astonished if the market fluctuates between the RED and GREEN areas for the coming weeks. If the value rises above 28.5k, it would signify that the corrective structure has ended and a fresh impulsive move could have commenced,” he said in a recent assessment with an accompanying graph.

Trader Pierre identified two trend lines, the four-hour and one-day, as support and resistance levels respectively.

The BTC price began the week by also encircling the traditional 200-week moving average (MA) of $26,600, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

Speculators in the spotlight

In terms of where the price of Bitcoin might go if downside momentum reappears, on-chain analysis provides a clearer understanding of potential support levels.

For Glassnode, an analytics firm, the recent focus of price action has been on a critical point of ‘breaking even’ for Bitcoin’s more speculative investors.

Those referred to as “short-term holders” (STHs) are wallet entities that have held coins for 155 days or less.

The total cost basis (CB) for these entities – the amount they paid for coins in the 155-day period – is currently around $26,400, which is close to the 200-week moving average.

“The recent fluctuations in Bitcoin’s value have been centered around the short-term holder’s cost basis of $26.4K,” Glassnode noted in a tweet over the weekend.

For STHs with an investment below $26,400, there is an accompanying chart that reveals unrealized losses.

Glassnode has previously noted the importance of the STH cost basis, as well as the analogous one for investors who have held for 155 days or longer (LTHs), which has become a focus of attention particularly after the November 2022 crash of the FTX exchange.

Macro cools after intense week

With U.S. markets closed in observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on June 19, crypto markets will have to wait until later in the week for macro catalysts.

Although not as numerous or impactful as the prior week’s, these still have the capability to cause some unexpected volatility.

The Federal Reserve, with Chair Jerome Powell slated to testify before Congress for a two-day period beginning June 21, is one of them.

Markets will be closely watching Powell’s words for clues as to what the future may hold, following the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to pause increases in interest rates but leave the possibility of resuming them in the future.

On June 22, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data will be released to conclude the week.

Among market participants, equal attention is given to Bitcoin’s relationship to traditional risk assets and to how macroeconomic events affect them.

“Last week, trader Josh Olszewicz pointed out that not only had $BTC lost its positive correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but it had also lost its inverse correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).”

Credible Crypto suggested that the current contrast between BTC and SPX performance – stagnant versus what various sources have described as a “bull market rally” – might still be resolved in favor of the bulls.

Cointelegraph has often documented Bitcoin’s fluctuating macro correlations in recent years, particularly since 2020 when it has been observed to become stronger during times of Federal Reserve liquidity injections and weaker during times of withdrawal.

GBTC gets a BlackRock boost

Despite Bitcoin providing little motivation, one of its most prominent investment options is currently enjoying a revival.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is making a renewed effort to reduce the gap between its price and the BTC spot price.

Since Bitcoin’s all-time highs in 2021, /GBTC has been trading at a discount that is, in fact, a negative premium. This has resulted in a decline of up to -50%.

Last week, BlackRock’s filing for a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) seemed to shift the sentiment, and as of June 17, the premium had gone down to -36.6%.

Despite debates over the exact nature of BlackRock’s offering, Cointelegraph reported that the alterations were made anyway, with some insisting that it would not be a spot ETF, which are still prohibited in the US.

GBTC’s impressive performance lately is close to its 2023 peak, with a 36.6% increase.

Buyers have made their presence felt, causing ARK Invest, a major client, to respond. ARK is currently in possession of over 5.3 million GBTC shares.

This week, there has been renewed speculation regarding an ETF offering from asset manager Fidelity Investments, although further details are yet to be announced.

“Having been invested in GBTC for some time, Mike Alfred expressed his satisfaction with the decision, noting that this only reinforced his confidence in the move.”

Market optimism sees repeated tests 

Crypto market sentiment was disturbed last week due to the consequences of U.S. legal action against exchanges and changes in macroeconomic policy.

Can BNB, LTC, OKB and QNT follow Bitcoin bulls in their attempt to take back control?

An examination of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reveals the impact of recent occurrences – June 15 recorded the least score since mid-March.

This implies that the atmosphere is more apprehensive than it has been since that time, yet Fear & Greed has still stayed remarkably consistent. The lowest point it reached was 41/100, which is barely “fearful” and then it went back to the steady “neutral” region.

As of June 19th, the Index is at 47/100.

Santiment, a research firm, went on to point to the BlackRock ETF narrative as a possible impetus for markets, particularly due to some of the negative responses it has garnered.

For Santiment, last week it was explained that the greater the amount of negativity associated with this story, the more probable it is that crypto markets will continue to increase.

Gary Gensler’s position in danger, BlackRock’s initial Bitcoin ETF and other news: Hodler’s Digest, June 11-17.

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