Bitcoin (BTC) trading OG Arthur Hayes recently predicted that BTC prices could drop by as much as 40% in March. In a blog post on Jan. 4, the former CEO of crypto trading giant BitMEX cautioned readers of a week of “turmoil” that could affect financial markets.

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Hayes on BTC price: “I could easily see a 30% to 40% correction”

The upcoming halving of Bitcoin’s block subsidy and the possibility of US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) getting regulatory approval have given crypto bulls confidence in what could be a landmark year for BTC price expansion.

However, according to Hayes, the Federal Reserve’s attempts to stabilize the economy might cause a drop in the Bitcoin price. The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) is set to expire on March 12th, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will decide whether to raise, hold or lower interest rates on March 20th, leaving a six-day window.

Bitcoin is known to be very sensitive to macroeconomic liquidity, and a Fed bailout could help its cause, but only after an initial shock caused by the volatility of 2023. Hayes predicts that the price of BTC/USD could drop between 20% and 30% from the beginning of March.

He believes that Bitcoin “knows printed money in whatever guise is always printed money” and will thus “rise sharply before and into the Fed’s eventual capitulation to restarting money printer go brrr.” The halving, Hayes explains, will then serve as the ultimate catalyst for upside continuation.

Bitcoin analysts stay split on ETF impact

Closer to the present, narratives about ETF approval have been causing their own fluctuations in the BTC price. This week, a potential rejection led to a decrease of almost 10%. At the same time, some commentators think that Bitcoin needs to undergo an even bigger correction, regardless of whether the ETFs are accepted or not.

John Bollinger, designer of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, has a different opinion. According to his readings, he believes that the price will go up. “I think it breaks higher,” he said on X (formerly Twitter) about BTC/USD.

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