At the start of the second week of June, Bitcoin (BTC) remains in its usual position, yet investors are predicting a breakout is imminent.
At the end of a quiet week, BTC/USD is firmly entrenched in its trading range, while behind the scenes, market players are getting ready for some big changes.
After a long wait, indications are becoming more and more evident that volatility is set to return for experienced traders.
With few macroeconomic catalysts this week, attention has shifted away from them to provide indications of what the short-term BTC price action might be.
The analysis of the data on the blockchain reveals other interesting facts, further emphasizing the concept that the only “unexciting” aspect of Bitcoin at present is its spot price.
Cointelegraph examines the essential elements that are influencing BTC/USD as it stays close to the $27,000 mark for yet another week.
Weekly close preserves key trend line
Despite not providing much cause for optimism with its latest weekly close, some renowned traders are seeing potential grounds for positivity in the /BTC/USD.
Despite staying within its limited trading range, as verified by Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, the possibility of a surge to $30,000 is growing.
“Jelle, a trader, commented in his latest analysis that it seems only a matter of time before Bitcoin breaks through the 30k level definitively,”
Jelle, similar to other people, observed that the 200-week moving average (MA) — a significant support line — had stayed in place.
Also remaining on trader and analyst Rekt Capital’s radar were various support structures for daily timeframes.
He summed up the situation by saying, “So far, so good,” as the exit was higher, potentially rendering the bearish “head-and-shoulders” structure from the prior weeks invalid.
A further tweet referred to a “successful retest” of support that is coming.
“Game of Trades acknowledged that BTC had fallen from a head and shoulders pattern in May, but noted that there was a classic whipsaw action around the neckline.”
The accompanying chart showed that BTC/USD could potentially drop to $24,000 due to the head-and-shoulders pattern.
Others sought less volatility, such as trader Crypto Tony, who had their sights set on $25,300, provided that $28,350 remains untouched as a point of resistance.
Macro lull comes as traders eye dollar rebound
During an atypical week of tranquility for traders, there will be very little macroeconomic data emanating from the United States between June 5-9.
With the debt ceiling issue now in the past, the next possible cause of market turbulence could come from the macroeconomic reports for May, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI); however, these will not be released for another week.
Focus now turns to further oil production cuts from Opec+ members as prices remain low despite already reduced production.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar presents a direct challenge to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Since the beginning of May, the greenback has been regaining its strength, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen by approximately 3.5%, which is typically inversely related to risk assets.
Matthew Hyland, a popular analyst, observed that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for DXY was rising on a weekly basis.
Skew, a fellow trader, pointed out that a close above 104.7%, the current June high, is necessary in order to form a bullish DXY trend.
He remarked that the market was “strong close & moving higher” during the early European trading session.
TraderSZ stated that DXY was “bullish until proven otherwise” over the weekend.
Stocks buoy bullish crypto case
Equities experienced an immediate calming effect from the debt ceiling resolution, yet crypto markets have not followed suit in terms of enthusiasm.
Market participants contend that this could still be subject to alteration as the S&P 500 reaches 10-month peaks.
On June 2, research firm Santiment reported that the US House had passed a significant debt ceiling agreement, causing the S&P 500 to reach its highest level since August. Additionally, cryptocurrency altcoins such as Litecoin ($LTC), UNUS SED LEO ($LEO), and Fantom ($FGC) had all experienced a surge in price.
A chart accompanying the data showed a brief resurgence in the price of gold, but the trend reversed early in the new week.
As reported by Cointelegraph, there were also those looking to see a positive connection between Bitcoin and the resurgent S&P 500.
Bitcoin hodlers comfortably in profit
“It may be tempting to assume that the Bitcoin rally has come to an end, but the facts suggest otherwise,” according to CryptoCon, a popular technical analyst, in their findings released last month.
At the time, BTC/USD was almost $1,000 higher than it is now, yet there was still a lack of enthusiasm.
CryptoCon was assessing the financial success of Bitcoin holders, utilizing the net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric developed in 2019 by Tuur Demeester and other entrepreneurs and analysts.
For the last few months, NUPL has remained relatively stable at a value of 0.25, signifying that the overall BTC supply is slightly in the positive.
NUPL evaluates the disparity between unrealized gain and unrealized loss. This is done by collecting unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) and contrasting the current value of the coins with the value of the coins when they were last moved on the blockchain.
“A value greater than zero implies that the network is generating a net profit, whereas a value less than zero indicates a net loss. Generally, the more the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) moves away from zero, the closer the market goes to its peak and troughs,” Glassnode, an analytics firm, elucidated in an introduction.
CryptoCon now claims that, despite the recent period of relative tranquility, NUPL has conducted a retest of the uptrend, giving rise to optimism.
He concluded in an update this weekend that 31k was not the end and encouraged people to be prepared.
A chart accompanying NUPL demonstrated its performance in relation to investor sentiment during the last decade.
Largest Bitcoin whales at center of “dichotomy”
Regarding investor sentiment, there is a wide range of opinions among different types of holders in the market.
Analysis suggests that Bitcoin is poised for a major surge in July following its push to $30,000 in March.
Glassnode has observed that despite the absence of capitulatory events, most individuals are still taking a risk-averse approach to Bitcoin, with selling dominating since May.
It appears that the only exception is the biggest group of Bitcoin “whales”.
Glassnode revealed that wallets with 10,000 BTC or more are increasing their holdings while all other wallets are decreasing their exposure, as indicated by the chart of accumulation versus distribution adjusted by cohort.
Researchers noted an intriguing contrast in the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score, as the biggest Whales (>10K BTC) remain actively accumulating while the other main cohorts are heavily selling off.
The “mega whales” had their last accumulation phase in late 2022, followed by the BTC/USD starting to recover in the weeks after that in 2023.
In mid-January, the whales took a break, entering a period of distribution before returning to the accumulation phase in May.
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