Bitcoin Surges to 2021 High: What You Need to Know This Week

Bitcoin (BTC) began the initial week of February at its lowest point in 16 months, causing traders to anticipate further declines.

Bitcoin Approaching 2021 Peak as Trader Eyes $50,000

The closing of the weekly and monthly candles left many traders bearish about Bitcoin’s price movement.

The start of the week was even more discouraging, with BTC/USD dropping to its lowest levels since November 2024, according to data from TradingView.

As a result, some expressed concerns about Bitcoin’s lack of strength since last year and predicted more downside to come.

“76k is the last support before the 50k area,” trader Roman stated in his latest analysis on X.

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on various potential targets for BTC’s price, some of which were below the $50,000 mark.

Crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe advised X followers to keep an eye on precious metals for signs of a bottom before the “crypto bloodbath” comes to an end.

Meanwhile, trader CrypNuevo believes that even a potential bounce back is not yet in sight.

In his update on targets for the week, he suggested that a reversal in BTC’s price would only occur after revisiting the levels near the old all-time highs from the 2021 bull market.

“Now, we are very close to this level and I will be paying close attention to it,” he confirmed.

Elsewhere, attention is being drawn to “gaps” in the CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market, specifically at $84,000 and $95,000.

“The large CME gap suggests that this recent drop was more of a ‘fake out’ to the downside,” said Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, a crypto asset management company.

Bitcoin RSI Predicts 2022 Bear Market Bottom

In search of signs for a potential bottom and bullish turnaround for BTC price action, traders are closely watching a key indicator.

Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) on the weekly chart is approaching a critical level.

RSI is a widely used trading tool that measures the level of “overbought” or “oversold” conditions of an asset at a particular price point.

The current weekly RSI reading is at 32.2, just two points above the “oversold” threshold.

Trader Mags commented that the last time RSI was at these levels was at the end of the 2022 bear market.

“At $76k, the BTC 1-day RSI is the most oversold it’s been since $26k,” noted the analytics account named after renowned economist Frank Fetter, along with data from onchain analytics platform Checkonchain.

However, looking at the monthly chart’s stochastic RSI last week, trader and analyst Titan of Crypto pointed out that Bitcoin’s macro bottoming phase will take time.

“In the past, when the monthly stochastic RSI dropped below 20, it usually confirmed the start of a bear market. Price typically needs time to establish a solid bottom,” he explained.

The Dangers of Bitcoin During a Macro Liquidity Crisis

This week marks the peak of US corporate earnings season, with tech giants Amazon and Google set to release their latest reports.

With last week’s disappointing performances from Intel and Microsoft, the stakes are high for these tech giants.

Unfortunately, the current market turmoil is also causing headaches for crypto investors. The Kobeissi Letter, a popular trading resource, has noted that uncertainty is now at an “elevated” level.

There is growing concern that Bitcoin’s recent downfall could be a leading indicator of trouble ahead. In fact, analytics source Mosaic Asset Company has warned that BTC/USD is forming a bearish head and shoulders pattern.

According to Mosaic, this could be a warning sign for financial market liquidity in the coming months.

Coincidentally, there are also worries about a potential rebound in US inflation later this year. Last week, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for December came in higher than expected.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the index for final demand, excluding food, energy, and trade services, has increased for eight consecutive months.

This week, the major macroeconomic data release will be the unemployment numbers, with several Federal Reserve officials also making public appearances.

Jeff Mei, the chief operations officer at BTSE exchange, believes that the recent turmoil surrounding the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, is contributing to the downward trend in crypto markets.

Gold’s Steep Decline Unseen in 40 Years

Aside from the rise of cryptocurrencies, the precious metals market continues to experience record-breaking volatility.

In Monday’s Asia trading session, gold hit a low of $4,400 per ounce, its lowest level in almost a month.

In just three days, XAU/USD has dropped over 20% from its all-time high of $5,600. This has caused a $4 trillion decrease in market capitalization for both gold and silver.

Mosaic attributed the announcement of Warsh as the potential new Fed chair to the sudden market reversal, as the markets have become highly sensitive to any negative news after their record-breaking performance.

“Concerns over a more hawkish Fed chair who may not be as accommodating to the capital markets have led to a rebound in the US dollar and a significant decline in precious metals,” Mosaic summarized.

US stock futures also point to a gloomy outlook for the week, while the US dollar’s strength signals a possible recovery from its multi-year lows.

The US dollar index (DXY) fell to 95.50 on January 30th, a level not seen since 2022.

“Although a weakening dollar has been a major driver behind the gains in precious metals, the failed breakdown last week may have been a key factor in the sharp decline in gold and silver,” Mosaic acknowledged.

Traditionally, a strong US dollar indicates weakness for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies, and a more hawkish stance from the Fed could lead to a recovery for the DXY.

Analyst and author Joey Keasberry expressed surprise at the possibility of the US dollar hitting a “significant bottom.”

“This could potentially lead to a more traditional risk-off environment,” he told followers on X.

Amazon AI: Separating Fact from Fiction

Despite reaching its lowest levels in almost a year, Bitcoin has yet to entice investors to re-enter the market.

In their latest analysis, CryptoQuant, an onchain analytics platform, identified a “structural void” in US spot demand.

By examining the Coinbase Premium – the difference in price between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs – CryptoQuant noted a decline compared to last year.

“From February to April of 2025, the Coinbase Premium was in the negative, but it was only temporary. Discounts would appear, get resolved, and then disappear. This is more indicative of strategic selling rather than a market with no buyers,” stated contributor TeddyVision in a Quicktake blog post.

A negative Coinbase Premium suggests that Asian demand is surpassing that of the US, causing downward pressure on BTC prices during Wall Street trading hours.

The premium has remained negative since mid-December, with two unsuccessful attempts to break out of the red during that time. On January 30th, it reached its lowest level in over a year at -0.177.

“There can be short dips for various reasons. However, when the discount persists even after the price has adjusted, it usually means that buyers are not stepping in,” added CryptoQuant.